[Winstonm]

blackshoe, on 2016-July-27, 18:39, said:

Speaking for myself, I don't hate either of these candidates. I just don't think either of them should be President.

So you are good with the possible next President asking Putin to interfere in the election?

This election is not about who we like or don't like, who we think should or should not be President; this election is about rejecting a threat to our stability as a democracy.

That risk tramples our personal likes and dislikes.

[kenberg]

Zelandakh, on 2016-July-28, 01:28, said:

A question occurs to me Ken. How many truly working class people, living on or below the bread line, do you actually know? Most reports seem to suggest that Trump's support is heavily concentrated in this section. Who is switching? I think you could look at some of the Brexit statistics for a reasonable idea of the profile to look for. Right across the Western world, people in this group are angry and scared. The situation reminds me quite strongly of the 1930s, just replace Communists with IS/Isis, Jews with bankers and gypsies with refugees (or Latinos in America I suppose). I hope we have enough people aware of history that we do not start repeating it.

A very fair question. Living on or below the bread line? Well, it depends on the meaning. Working class? More than a few.
I don't want to start making a list and then argue about who qualifies and who doesn't but perhaps an example or two. My wife's son has a high school education, works with his hands installing electronic equipment, is decently paid but not rich. He has a wife and a child, and they recently bought a nice but modest house. He and I get along very well. Going back in history, my father installed weatherstripping. I grew up in a nice but modest house. He was an independent contractor, which I suppose would make him an entrepreneur, we jazz up all titles today, but what he did in the morning was to drive to a building and get to work with a hammer and nails. My younger daughter is part owner of a canine boarding kennel, another entrepreneur, but she spends most of her time with the dogs. And yes, I do know people on food stamps. Make that SNAP, we have to go with the jargon.

When I hear Joe Biden, it sounds like home. If the Dems want to win, they need his natural supporters. That would be me.

Yes I have a Ph.D. My father never had any idea why on Earth I would want to do such a thing. He didn't object, it just made no sense to him why a person who is reasonable competent physically would want to spend all that time with books. Part way through college I gave some thought to dropping out. I was making good money, I was enjoying the physical work I was doing, I was getting a little tired of listening to professors. But it was a passing whim, I decided to stick with where I belonged. It was the right decision.


I am not advertising myself as just another blue collar guy. I am not. Neither is Joe Biden. But I liked his speech. And I do know people who live closer to the line than is comfortable.

[Zelandakh]

kenberg, on 2016-July-28, 09:02, said:

is decently paid but not rich.

It is a funny thing but I have learned over time that almost noone likes to announce themselves, or even think of themselves, as rich. Instead you get phrases such as comfortable. This is to a large extent a matter of perspective. As I was growing up, I lived with my divorced mother who was a part-time cleaner. So my perspective on who is poor is perhaps different from the majority of bridge players. Certainly your first family sounds thoroughly middle class to me. They are only working class if you go by the old measure of "working with his hands", which does not hold up in the current economy. The other examples are all people who cannot actually lose their jobs, so again not really high up on the Trump target list. The food stampSNAP families, if they are seeking work and losing out to immigrants, well their private opinions of Trump would be interesting. It would not surprise me if at least one ended up voted for him, even if they were not advertising it to you publicly. What is missing from your list is someone whose job is directly threatened by globilisation or who has security fears and decides a "Daddy" president is required in the current climate. These are prime candidates for the Republicans and there are enough of them in the key states if things run badly for HC.

[Zelandakh]

Zelandakh, on 2016-July-28, 09:24, said:

It is a funny thing but I have learned over time that almost noone likes to announce themselves, or even think of themselves, as rich. Instead you get phrases such as "comfortable". This is to a large extent a matter of perspective. As I was growing up, I lived with my divorced mother who was a part-time cleaner. So my perspective on who is poor is perhaps different from the majority of bridge players. Certainly your first family sounds thoroughly middle class to me. They are only working class if you go by the old measure of "working with his hands", which does not hold up in the current economy. The other examples are all people who cannot actually lose their jobs, so again not really high up on the Trump target list. The food stampSNAP families, if they are seeking work and losing out to immigrants, well their private opinions of Trump would be interesting. It would not surprise me if at least one ended up voted for him, even if they were not advertising it to you publicly. What is missing from your list is someone whose job is directly threatened by globilisation or who has security fears and decides a "Daddy" president is required in the current climate. These are prime candidates for the Republicans and there are enough of them in the key states if things run badly for HC.

[Winstonm]

Zelandakh, on 2016-July-28, 09:24, said:

It is a funny thing but I have learned over time that almost noone likes to announce themselves, or even think of themselves, as rich. Instead you get phrases such as comfortable. This is to a large extent a matter of perspective. As I was growing up, I lived with my divorced mother who was a part-time cleaner. So my perspective on who is poor is perhaps different from the majority of bridge players. Certainly your first family sounds thoroughly middle class to me. They are only working class if you go by the old measure of "working with his hands", which does not hold up in the current economy. The other examples are all people who cannot actually lose their jobs, so again not really high up on the Trump target list. The food stampSNAP families, if they are seeking work and losing out to immigrants, well their private opinions of Trump would be interesting. It would not surprise me if at least one ended up voted for him, even if they were not advertising it to you publicly. What is missing from your list is someone whose job is directly threatened by globilisation or who has security fears and decides a "Daddy" president is required in the current climate. These are prime candidates for the Republicans and there are enough of them in the key states if things run badly for HC.

I doubt these people look at the economic impact of their votes - what they look at is their lives and how they feel. They are afraid and insecure about their futures. According to this notion, severe fear and anxiety translate into support for an authority figure such as Trump.

Quote

MacWilliams studies authoritarianism — not actual dictators, but rather a psychological profile of individual voters that is characterized by a desire for order and a fear of outsiders. People who score high in authoritarianism, when they feel threatened, look for strong leaders who promise to take whatever action necessary to protect them from outsiders and prevent the changes they fear.

....He polled a large sample of likely voters, looking for correlations between support for Trump and views that align with authoritarianism. What he found was astonishing: Not only did authoritarianism correlate, but it seemed to predict support for Trump more reliably than virtually any other indicator.

I think it is pretty simple. If Trump is elected, the terrorists have won.

[cherdano]

awm, on 2016-July-28, 08:17, said:

Hillary will be a fine president, but I'm glad Bernie pulled her to the left on a few issues and I hope she will stick to them.

Ok that works for me. To add another thing that we probably agree on, DWS getting pushed out is fine by me - although I would have preferred if it had happened without Russian hackers leaking emails and Wikileaks's mission creep (wasn't it originally about government transparency?).

[billw55]

Winstonm, on 2016-July-28, 07:59, said:

No, I don't think those voters will change their minds, but I do look for a substantial amount of voter turnout from those who normally don't vote or who would normally vote Republican being spurred to turn out and vote for Clinton in order to prevent a Trump presidency.
The crazier Trump projects himself, the greater the likelihood of spurring these folks to action against him, IMO.

I wonder. Clinton holds a special hate among Rs. An R who dislikes Trump enough might have voted for O'Malley or Warren or even Sanders (barely), but almost never Clinton. Consider a simple voter spectrum in three bins:

vote R --- don't vote --- vote D

I suspect that more than ever before, voters will change bins - but only by one step. Any of the four possible steps, but never two steps across from voting one way to voting the other.

[Winstonm]

billw55, on 2016-July-28, 12:31, said:

I wonder. Clinton holds a special hate among Rs. An R who dislikes Trump enough might have voted for O'Malley or Warren or even Sanders (barely), but almost never Clinton. Consider a simple voter spectrum in three bins:

vote R --- don't vote --- vote D

I suspect that more than ever before, voters will change bins - but only by one step. Any of the four possible steps, but never two steps across from voting one way to voting the other.

I agree with this. I've never grasped the rights wing's vitriol for HC other than her not being one of them. It may be that simple. To me they have created a straw (wo)man and then hanged her in effigy; to them, it may be she represents the enemy - change.

None of this explains Trump, though. This cannot be about right and left, Republicans and Democrats, as Trump shows no consistent path. His claim is simply that of a strongman - we're in danger and I am the one who can save you.

Despite Kenbergs reservations, I believe this time the social scientists explain this phenomenon better than anyone else - almost too well for our own good because there can be no room for reasoning when a visceral reaction is transpiring.

[Winstonm]

Accidental double post.

[kenberg]

Zelandakh, on 2016-July-28, 09:24, said:

It is a funny thing but I have learned over time that almost noone likes to announce themselves, or even think of themselves, as rich. Instead you get phrases such as comfortable. This is to a large extent a matter of perspective. As I was growing up, I lived with my divorced mother who was a part-time cleaner. So my perspective on who is poor is perhaps different from the majority of bridge players. Certainly your first family sounds thoroughly middle class to me. They are only working class if you go by the old measure of "working with his hands", which does not hold up in the current economy. The other examples are all people who cannot actually lose their jobs, so again not really high up on the Trump target list. The food stampSNAP families, if they are seeking work and losing out to immigrants, well their private opinions of Trump would be interesting. It would not surprise me if at least one ended up voted for him, even if they were not advertising it to you publicly. What is missing from your list is someone whose job is directly threatened by globilisation or who has security fears and decides a "Daddy" president is required in the current climate. These are prime candidates for the Republicans and there are enough of them in the key states if things run badly for HC.

I have thought some about this as well. Here is one divide. If we look back on our childhood with, for the most part, pleasure then we think of this as normal. This is the case with me. A friend grew up living in one place after another, often moving just ahead of the rent collector. This seems awful. My life seems normal. I think that the key difference is anxiety. I never had any doubt about having a home to live in.

Some of what I was hearing in the convention speeches seemed to be trying to get at this, at least a little. There is something basic in life that people need, and really we all know they need it if we just think about it. Again I think Biden had a useful start. I don't recall the exact words but he was suggesting we think of what we learned as children. A good idea, I think. We understand these fundamentals if we just think bout them

[kenberg]

I just brought home some wine. Becky greeted this with the observation that we are now prepared for convention watching. Maybe I should have bought vodka. Forward! Always forward!

[Zelandakh]

kenberg, on 2016-July-28, 15:02, said:

I just brought home some wine. Becky greeted this with the observation that we are now prepared for convention watching. Maybe I should have bought vodka. Forward! Always forward!

Wine for convention watching, beer for the footy, vodka for hacking into government email systems.

[mike777]

I think many posters here forget that 80-90% of voters who miss a couple of paychecks would be in deep trouble. That causes fear and anxiety. If you miss a couple of paychecks and you lose your home or apt, or car that causes fear. If you miss a couple of paychecks you worry about taking care of your young kids. That is 80%+ of America.

My guess is and only a guess that for many posters, the people they are friends with, their loved ones perhaps dont live with this fear and anxiety so they dont fully crasp it. If you and the people you know best can miss a couple paychecks and it is not big deal that is another world for most. They are used to their friends and loved ones owning homes or a car or a cell phone but many dont have these things.

As a result these things such as people clinging to their guns and God seem easier to make fun of or look down upon as lower class.


It is nice to have the luxury to worry about if the Dems want to control our lives and are closet fascists or if the Republicans are racist/bigots and closet fascists.

[PassedOut]

mike777, on 2016-July-28, 16:07, said:

I think many posters here forget that 80-90% of voters who miss a couple of paychecks would be in deep trouble. That causes fear and anxiety. If you miss a couple of paychecks and you lose your home or apt, or car that causes fear. If you miss a couple of paychecks you worry about taking care of your young kids. That is 80%+ of America.

I don't see any evidence that posters here forget that some folks are in that position. But could you supply a link to support your assertion that 80-90% of Americans are in such dire straits? I'd like to see where you came up with those numbers.

[Winstonm]

mike777, on 2016-July-28, 16:07, said:

I think many posters here forget that 80-90% of voters who miss a couple of paychecks would be in deep trouble. That causes fear and anxiety. If you miss a couple of paychecks and you lose your home or apt, or car that causes fear. If you miss a couple of paychecks you worry about taking care of your young kids. That is 80%+ of America.

My guess is and only a guess that for many posters, the people they are friends with, their loved ones perhaps dont live with this fear and anxiety so they dont fully crasp it. If you and the people you know best can miss a couple paychecks and it is not big deal that is another world for most. They are used to their friends and loved ones owning homes or a car or a cell phone but many dont have these things.

As a result these things such as people clinging to their guns and God seem easier to make fun of or look down upon as lower class.


It is nice to have the luxury to worry about if the Dems want to control our lives and are closet fascists or if the Republicans are racist/bigots and closet fascists.

I think you are right that anxiety and fear is the driving force behind these folks - but I doubt economic fear is the basis for their response. They are looking for safety, just what Trump is promising to deliver.

[mike777]

PassedOut, on 2016-July-28, 17:09, said:

I don't see any evidence that posters here forget that some folks are in that position. But could you supply a link to support your assertion that 80-90% of Americans are in such dire straits? I'd like to see where you came up with those numbers.

Clearly you are one poster who is unaware of this, I doubt you are the only one.

A 2 second google search found this:

http://money.cnn.com...rgency-savings/

[kenberg]

Well, the cited article says:

Quote

Fewer than one in four Americans have enough money in their savings account to cover at least six months of expenses, enough to help cushion the blow of a job loss, medical emergency or some other unexpected event, according to the survey of 1,000 adults. Meanwhile, 50% of those surveyed have less than a three-month cushion and 27% had no savings at all.

These numbers seem plausible, but doesn't really say that 3/4 would be inn deep trouble if they missed a couple of paychecks.

[kenberg]

I think statistics can be tricky. People go through stages in their lives. There was a time in my early twenties when I was shopping at the store for a weeks groceries. I was not watching the woman running the cash register but when she announced the total I told her she had mad an error. With effort, I convinced her to check it out and she had, the total was off by, I think, a dollar. She had just pressed a wrong key, honest error. Today I would not notice such an error, even if adjusted for inflation. I was married, I had a child, I was living on not much. I knew what cost what, down to the penny. But life changes.

We expect different things at different times of our lives. At that time, my friends were all pretty much in the same boat and we were not fretting. It was not a permanent condition.


My point about statistics is that a 23 year old grad student with hopes for the future gets lumped in with a forty year old who still is living in that way. It's not the same thing at all.


This is not a denial that people are in bad straits. Quite a few are. It is simply a caution about making too much out of raw statistics.

[cherdano]

Bernie Sanders can't even choose delegates for a convention who aren't absolutely nuts. And he came close to becoming the presidential nominee for a major political party. In another year, I would have considered that frightening...

[mike777]

Not sure why but posters even when told want to deny the simple fact. The majority , the vast majority are in fear and are anxious. If most if not the vast majority lose some paychecks they are in trouble.

I mean these comments just show what a bubble a rich bubble posters live in.
Americans own 300 million guns and the reaction is these people cling to guns and god and are not as smart as posters are.


See the same reaction to Brexit...the voters are uneducated.