[remnart]

1. ♠AQT73♥43♦K7♣KQJ2, amber. L. PASS
2. ♠KQT75♥54♦AKT2♣K5, white. PASS
3. ♠AQJ943♥4♦973♣T94, amber. PASS
4. ♠KT652♥-♦AK642♣A94, amber. DOUBLE
5. ♠Q76♥Q63♦AK84♣AK4, red. DOUBLE
6. ♠A875♥6♦AKJ74♣K94, white. L. PASS
7. ♠653♥QJ3♦AKJT976♣-, white. 5 DIAMONDS
8. ♠AK74♥AT♦JT5♣AK84, amber. L. DOUBLE
9. ♠AK953♥K8♦82♣AKT8, red. 4 SPADES
10. ♠AKJ973♥2♦T742♣J4, red. PASS
11. ♠A53♥T♦AJT953♣A87, white. PASS
12. ♠K87432♥-♦A4♣T7643, white. L. PASS
13. ♠AK864♥Q72♦A72♣43, white. L. PASS
14. ♠AQJ72♥Q♦T2♣86543, white. 4 SPADES
15. ♠KQ9874♥8♦J6♣AK75, amber. L. 4 SPADES
16. ♠KT9♥-♦Q9754♣AK764, white. PASS
17 ♠AQJ9542♥T3♦T98♣2, amber. PASS
18. ♠AJ943♥42♦AKJ6♣Q4, red. PASS
19. ♠KQ74♥4♦63♣AKT976, green. L. PASS
20. ♠AK943♥K2♦JT9842♣-, red. L. 4 SPADES
21. ♠KT743♥J♦QT♣AQJ84, red. PASS
22. ♠AK732♥Q♦75♣AKT98, red. 4 SPADES
23. ♠AT72♥2♦KQ6♣KQT63, red. PASS

[Zelandakh]

1. 4♠ ♠AQT73♥43♦K7♣KQJ2, amber. L.
2. 4♠ ♠KQT75♥54♦AKT2♣K5, white.
3. 4♠ ♠AQJ943♥4♦973♣T94, amber.
4. X ♠KT652♥-♦AK642♣A94, amber.
5. P ♠Q76♥Q63♦AK84♣AK4, red.
6. X ♠A875♥6♦AKJ74♣K94, white. L.
7. 5♦ (4NT if playing inversion) ♠653♥QJ3♦AKJT976♣-, white.
8. X ♠AK74♥AT♦JT5♣AK84, amber. L.
9. 4♠ ♠AK953♥K8♦82♣AKT8, red.
10.4♠ ♠AKJ973♥2♦T742♣J4, red.
11. X ♠A53♥T♦AJT953♣A87, white.
12.4♠ ♠K87432♥-♦A4♣T7643, white. L.
13. P ♠AK864♥Q72♦A72♣43, white. L.
14. P ♠AQJ72♥Q♦T2♣86543, white.
15.4♠ ♠KQ9874♥8♦J6♣AK75, amber. L.
16. X ♠KT9♥-♦Q9754♣AK764, white.
17.4♠ ♠AQJ9542♥T3♦T98♣2, amber.
18. P ♠AJ943♥42♦AKJ6♣Q4, red.
19. X ♠KQ74♥4♦63♣AKT976, green. L.
20.4♠ ♠AK943♥K2♦JT9842♣-, red. L.
21.4♠ ♠KT743♥J♦QT♣AQJ84, red.
22.4♠ ♠AK732♥Q♦75♣AKT98, red.
23. X ♠AT72♥2♦KQ6♣KQT63, red.

I think 21 is the hardest (all 3 options are in the mix) followed by 18. I also do not understand passing 3 but bidding on 15, so am hoping to learn something important in due course! Another point is how PK calculates his scores. With widely different approaches in 4th seat, it seems clear that different approaches in 6th will also be used and taking account of that is not going to be easy!

[gordontd]

 Jinksy, on 2015-March-08, 16:36, said:

Gordon, could you number your responses? I'd like to compare, but it's giving me too much of a headache in their current format.

Sure - sorry.

1 - 4S
2 - 4S
3 - 4S
4 - X
5 - P
6 - X
7 - 5D
8 - X
9 - X
10 - 4S
11 - X
12 - 4S
13 - P
14 - 4S
15 - 4S
16 - X
17 - 4S
18 - 4S
19 - X
20 - 4S
21 - 4S
22 - 4S
23 - X 

[NickRW]

1 4s
2 4s
3 p
4 x
5 p
6 x
7 5d
8 x
9 4s
10 4s
11 5d
12 4s
13 4s
14 p
15 4s
16 x
17 4s
18 4s
19 5c
20 4s
21 4s
22 4s
23 x

[y66]

1. 4S
2. 4S
3. P
4. X
5. P
6. X
7. 5D
8. X
9. 4S
10. 4S
11. X
12. 4S
13. P
14. P
15. 4S
16. P
17. 4S
18. P
19. P
20. 4S
21. 4S
22. 4S
23. X

[wbartley]

1. P
2. P
3. 4S
4. X
5. P (and take my plus score)
6. X
7. P
8. P (and take my plus score)
9. 4S
10. 4S
11. X
12. 4S
13. P
14. P
15. 4S
16. 4N (I think partner has values here but only 4 spades since he didn't bid)
17. 4S
18. P
19. P
20. 4S
21. P
22. 4S
23. X

[gszes]

problem 7 with about 40 5d bids and 3 passes is probably one of the biggest mistakes since bbo forums have been getting killed regularly by JEC in many situations just like this---------------------------(oh I was part of the 40)

[gnasher]

I've put an asterisk against the ones where I hate my action.
1. 4S *
2. Double *
3. 4S
4. Double *
5. Pass
6. 4S
7. 5D
8. Double
9. 4S *
10. 4S
11. Double
12. 4S
13. Pass
14. Pass
15. 4S
16. Double
17. 4S
18. Double *
19. 5C
20. 4S
21. Double *
22. 4S
23. Double

[mikeh]

Only just saw this thread...good idea, PK

FWIW, I know enough of my game to know that I am not always consistent, such that on some days I tend to be a little more aggressive than on others. Oh well, in today's mood:

1. 4S
2. 4S
3. P
4. x
5. P
6 x
7 5D
8 x
9 4S
10 P
11 P
12 4S
13 P
14 P
15 4S
16 4N
17 4S
18 4S
19 5C
20 P
21 P
22 4S
23 x

[PhilKing]

It's time for the results. I have decided to use aggregate scoring, so you are scoring against each other rather than with the other table. It looks as though anything under -3000 is a cracking total.

But first a few awards ....

The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinsky and Eagles123. They both stepped into the breach 14 times. Quite remarkable given that the lowest number was 4. Eagles also had the equal fewest passes with gordontd.

The "flexible double" award goes to WesleyC, who kept his options open on 12 hands.

And the "take a plus" award goes to Remnart, who resisted temptation on 14 hands.

Now the scores ....

1. ♠AQT73♥43♦K7♣KQJ2. Pass -650, 4S -100, Dbl -100

The opponents can make 5♥ on a finesse, but in practice they sold to 4♠, and you will get there via an overcall or a double.

2. ♠KQT75♥54♦AKT2♣K5. Pass +50, 4S +450, Dbl +450

Again, either positive action gets you to 4♠, so the passers lose out again.

3. ♠AQJ943♥4♦973♣T94. Pass -650, 4S -1100

In practice, the 4♠ overcall led to -1400 in 5♠, but that's because partner had not bought the best-selling new bridge book "Know your partner's overcall style," and competed over 5♥ with ♠T85♥J92♦KQJ5♣K83. I have credited partner with a pass, but by the same token LHO did not have an automatic 5♥ bid, so I have gone with a compromise score of -1100.

4. ♠KT652♥-♦AK642♣A94. 4S +200, Dbl +200

Whichever action you take, you should go plus against 5♥.

5. ♠Q76♥Q63♦AK84♣AK4. Pass +100, Dbl -200

I think pass is obvious. Your hand screams defence, and you know partner will remove a double. Partner was very suitable: ♠KJT93♥J5♦9♣J8653, SO 4♠ had a play, but defending was right this time.

6. ♠A875♥6♦AKJ74♣K94. Pass -420, Dbl -690 (I am assuming Gnasher's 4S overcall is a typo)

Partner had balanced junk on this occasion.

7. ♠653♥QJ3♦AKJT976♣-. Pass +50, 5D +300

Ron Smith passed. It's not clear how well you do if you overcall. Partner has ♠KQT♥2♦Q8432♣A642, but if he has read "Know your partner's overcall style," he will take the money over 5♥.

8. ♠AK74♥AT♦JT5♣AK84. Pass -620, Dbl -200

Taking the money does not work this time. Declarer should make 4♥. In practice it was butchered, but I am not crediting the passers with a plus, since he went down on a somewhat different auction. Double gets you to 4♠ one off.

9. ♠AK953♥K8♦82♣AKT8. Pass -420, 4S +100, Dbl +100

Any positive action pushes them to 5♥ one off.

10. ♠AKJ973♥2♦T742♣J4. Pass -450, 4S -1100

4♠ gets stretchered. I thought I liked overcalling 4♠ as much as anybody before this thread, but I would leave this one alone. We have defence, and you have to respect the vulnerability a bit.

11. ♠A53♥T♦AJT953♣A87. Pass -420, 5D -800, Dbl -800

This looks like a defensive hand. It's possible that double leads to -590, but only if partner stands it with ♠T864♥93♦Q76♣T643. You might end up being brutalised in 4♠.

12. ♠K87432♥-♦A4♣T7643. Pass +50, 4S +420

4♠ was an extremely popular choice amogst the quizzers, and Versace also chose that action at the table.

13. ♠AK864♥Q72♦A72♣43. Pass +100, 4S -100

You catch partner with five spades and a few bits and pieces, yet bidding was still wrong. They could have made 4♥, but with no real clues, declarer wandered a couple off.

14. ♠AQJ72♥Q♦T2♣86543. Pass -450, 4S -100

The points go to the brave here. Trendafilov passed at the table.

15. ♠KQ9874♥8♦J6♣AK75. 4S -800

The better your hand, the worse the dummy will be.

16. ♠KT9♥-♦Q9754♣AK764. Pass -420, 4NT +50, Dbl +450

I have sympathy for the 4NT bidders. Double works because partner has five spades and a hand that might of overcalled. The oppo ended up letting through 5♠ on a misdefence.

17. ♠AQJ9542♥T3♦T98♣2. Pass -650, 4S -500

The overcall wins a few imps. It looks pretty borderline to me.

18. ♠AJ943♥42♦AKJ6♣Q4. Pass -420, 4S -200, Dbl -590

Both tables doubled and conceded 590. I think the 4♠ overcallers would have done very well. Although it could be double for two down, I don't think it would.

19. ♠KQ74♥4♦63♣AKT976. Pass -650, 4S -500, 5C -500, Dbl -100

Double gets you to 4♠ one off, but comes with risks of its own. I presume all the 4♠ overcallers plan on running to 5♣, and that goes for 500 because spades are 4-1.

20. ♠AK943♥K2♦JT9842♣-. Pass +100, 4S +500, Dbl +300

After a 4♠ overcall, a wild auction in which both sides diagnosed a double fit ended in 7♣X down three despite 4♠ being the limit. Four hearts is down two on club ruffs.

21. ♠KT743♥J♦QT♣AQJ84. Pass -420, 4S -200, Dbl -200

Helgemo passed. In another match Fitzgibbon doubled and got to 4♠.

22. ♠AK732♥Q♦75♣AKT98. Dbl +100, 4S -200

You go plus if you double, but at the colours I think 4♠ is right. Levin overcalled 4♠, but ran to 5♣ when it went p-p-x, so shelled out 500.

23. ♠AT72♥2♦KQ6♣KQT63. Pass +50, Dbl +300

Double looks clear, because you have quite a lot of offensive potential, and there is usually more to gain than lose. 4♠ was booked to fail, but the opponents misjudged at multiple tables and went on to 5♥.

[lbellicaud]

1. 4♠
2. 4♠
3. -
4. X
5. X
6. X
7. 5♦
8. X
9. 4♠
10. -
11. 5♦
12. 4♠
13. -
14. -
15. 4♠
16. X
17. -
18. -
19. 5♣
20. -
21. X
22. 4♠
23. X

[PhilKing]

I've looked at a few scores and I think karlson may be the one to beat with -2450.

And RHM looks to have nailed it as well and may be the winner.

[roofman]

1 4S (X)
2 4S (X)
3 4S
4 x (4S)
5 pass (X)
6 x
7 5D
8 x
9 4S
10 4S
11 x
12 pass (4S)
13 pass (4S)
14 pass (4S)
15 4S
16 x
17 4S
18 4S
19 x
20 4S
21 4S
22 4S
23 x

[PhantomSac]

Thanks for all the work Phil, that was fun.

[karlson]

 PhantomSac, on 2015-March-09, 18:30, said:

Thanks for all the work Phil, that was fun.

Yes, thanks very much.

[nige1]

 PhilKing, on 2015-March-09, 15:58, said:

It's time for the results. I have decided to use aggregate scoring, so you are scoring against each other rather than with the other table. It looks as though anything under -3000 is a cracking total. But first a few awards ....
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinsky and Eagles123. They both stepped into the breach 14 times. Quite remarkable given that the lowest number was 4. Eagles also had the equal fewest passes with gordontd.
The "flexible double" award goes to WesleyC, who kept his options open on 12 hands.
And the "take a plus" award goes to Remnart, who resisted temptation on 14 hands.
Now the scores ....

1. ♠AQT73♥43♦K7♣KQJ2. Pass -650, 4S -100, Dbl -100
The opponents can make 5♥ on a finesse, but in practice they sold to 4♠, and you will get there via an overcall or a double.

2. ♠KQT75♥54♦AKT2♣K5. Pass +50, 4S +450, Dbl +450
Again, either positive action gets you to 4♠, so the passers lose out again.

3. ♠AQJ943♥4♦973♣T94. Pass -650, 4S -1100
In practice, the 4♠ overcall led to -1400 in 5♠, but that's because partner had not bought the best-selling new bridge book "Know your partner's overcall style," and competed over 5♥ with ♠T85♥J92♦KQJ5♣K83. I have credited partner with a pass, but by the same token LHO did not have an automatic 5♥ bid, so I have gone with a compromise score of -1100.

4. ♠KT652♥-♦AK642♣A94. 4S +200, Dbl +200
Whichever action you take, you should go plus against 5♥.

5. ♠Q76♥Q63♦AK84♣AK4. Pass +100, Dbl -200
I think pass is obvious. Your hand screams defence, and you know partner will remove a double. Partner was very suitable: ♠KJT93♥J5♦9♣J8653, SO 4♠ had a play, but defending was right this time.

6. ♠A875♥6♦AKJ74♣K94. Pass -420, Dbl -690 (I am assuming Gnasher's 4S overcall is a typo) Partner had balanced junk on this occasion.

7. ♠653♥QJ3♦AKJT976♣-. Pass +50, 5D +300
Ron Smith passed. It's not clear how well you do if you overcall. Partner has ♠KQT♥2♦Q8432♣A642, but if he has read "Know your partner's overcall style," he will take the money over 5♥.

8. ♠AK74♥AT♦JT5♣AK84. Pass -620, Dbl -200
Taking the money does not work this time. Declarer should make 4♥. In practice it was butchered, but I am not crediting the passers with a plus, since he went down on a somewhat different auction. Double gets you to 4♠ one off.

9. ♠AK953♥K8♦82♣AKT8. Pass -420, 4S +100, Dbl +100
Any positive action pushes them to 5♥ one off.

10. ♠AKJ973♥2♦T742♣J4. Pass -450, 4S -1100
4♠ gets stretchered. I thought I liked overcalling 4♠ as much as anybody before this thread, but I would leave this one alone. We have defence, and you have to respect the vulnerability a bit.

11. ♠A53♥T♦AJT953♣A87. Pass -420, 5D -800, Dbl -800
This looks like a defensive hand. It's possible that double leads to -590, but only if partner stands it with ♠T864♥93♦Q76♣T643. You might end up being brutalised in 4♠.

12. ♠K87432♥-♦A4♣T7643. Pass +50, 4S +420
4♠ was an extremely popular choice amogst the quizzers, and Versace also chose that action at the table.

13. ♠AK864♥Q72♦A72♣43. Pass +100, 4S -100
You catch partner with five spades and a few bits and pieces, yet bidding was still wrong. They could have made 4♥, but with no real clues, declarer wandered a couple off.

14. ♠AQJ72♥Q♦T2♣86543. Pass -450, 4S -100
The points go to the brave here. Trendafilov passed at the table.

15. ♠KQ9874♥8♦J6♣AK75. 4S -800
The better your hand, the worse the dummy will be.

16. ♠KT9♥-♦Q9754♣AK764. Pass -420, 4NT +50, Dbl +450
I have sympathy for the 4NT bidders. Double works because partner has five spades and a hand that might of overcalled. The oppo ended up letting through 5♠ on a misdefence.

17. ♠AQJ9542♥T3♦T98♣2. Pass -650, 4S -500
The overcall wins a few imps. It looks pretty borderline to me.

18. ♠AJ943♥42♦AKJ6♣Q4. Pass -420, 4S -200, Dbl -590
Both tables doubled and conceded 590. I think the 4♠ overcallers would have done very well. Although it could be double for two down, I don't think it would.

19. ♠KQ74♥4♦63♣AKT976. Pass -650, 4S -500, 5C -500, Dbl -100
Double gets you to 4♠ one off, but comes with risks of its own. I presume all the 4♠ overcallers plan on running to 5♣, and that goes for 500 because spades are 4-1.

20. ♠AK943♥K2♦JT9842♣-. Pass +100, 4S +500, Dbl +300
After a 4♠ overcall, a wild auction in which both sides diagnosed a double fit ended in 7♣X down three despite 4♠ being the limit. Four hearts is down two on club ruffs.

21. ♠KT743♥J♦QT♣AQJ84. Pass -420, 4S -200, Dbl -200
Helgemo passed. In another match Fitzgibbon doubled and got to 4♠.

22. ♠AK732♥Q♦75♣AKT98. Dbl +100, 4S -200
You go plus if you double, but at the colours I think 4♠ is right. Levin overcalled 4♠, but ran to 5♣ when it went p-p-x, so shelled out 500.

23. ♠AT72♥2♦KQ6♣KQT63. Pass +50, Dbl +300
Double looks clear, because you have quite a lot of offensive potential, and there is usually more to gain than lose. 4♠ was booked to fail, but the opponents misjudged at multiple tables and went on to 5♥.

Thanks PhilKing. c. -3820

[benlessard]

Quote

5. ♠Q76♥Q63♦AK84♣AK4. Pass +100, Dbl -200
I think pass is obvious. Your hand screams defence, and you know partner will remove a double. Partner was very suitable: ♠KJT93♥J5♦9♣J8653, SO 4♠ had a play, but defending was right this time.

Its surprising to find partner with Jx H here since we hold Qxx of hearts. Was 1H limited maybe ? Also I think ill score +11 often enough for the -4/-5.

Quote

7. ♠653♥QJ3♦AKJT976♣-. Pass +50, 5D +300

Ron Smith passed. It's not clear how well you do if you overcall. Partner has ♠KQT♥2♦Q8432♣A642, but if he has read "Know your partner's overcall style," he will take the money over 5♥.

look like like a normal NV takeout X to me.

Quote

17. ♠AQJ9542♥T3♦T98♣2. Pass -650, 4S -500

The overcall wins a few imps. It looks pretty borderline to me.

Pass wouldnt even cross my mind, 7S and I still have some hope partner got a stiff H or they take the push to 5H. I dont see how you can pass this one but bid on 10

Quote

10. ♠AKJ973♥2♦T742♣J4. Pass -450, 4S -1100

4♠ gets stretchered. I thought I liked overcalling 4♠ as much as anybody before this thread, but I would leave this one alone. We have defence, and you have to respect the vulnerability a bit.

Quote

It's possible that double leads to -590, but only if partner stands it with ♠T864♥93♦Q76♣T643. You might end up being brutalised in 4♠.

This look like an auto stand to me.

[WesleyC]

Thanks again for such a great post. After thinking about a few of the hands overnight, I went back and redid the quiz this morning (without reading any of the analysis). The second time through 3 of my choices changed (B2 X -> 4S, B9 X -> 4S, B21 X -> P) so I might've lost the flexible double award .

I think it would be valuable to put together a double dummy analysis of the hands in order to provide more general insight (rather than just a table result from 1 arbitrary full deal). However, in order to do that I need some help coming up with a range for 1H, P and 4H both in standard and limited openings (and also how much each call would vary based on the vul).

The main part I could use some input on is determining what hands partner is going to act with (especially with a 1S overcall) and what hands constitute a 4H bid playing limited openings, because the style of these bids varies a huge amount even between top players.

Any thoughts on what criteria might be suitable (or perhaps someone already has Deal 3.19 tcl script for a similar situation)?

[Mbodell]

I agree that simming would be valuable, but somewhat tricky to get agreement. Would also probably be super useful to start a shared library of common hand types (like 1H openers, non-overcalls, 1H-4H hands in limited openers, etc.). One thought I've had on some of these lines (primarily interested in trying to sim opponents actions overcalling 1NT) is that to model a pool of opponents it may be that hands that meet pattern A are 100% in our space. Hands that meet pattern B are 70% in our space. Hands that meet pattern C are 50% in our space. Hands that meet pattern D are 20% in our space. By which I mean, if some - but not all - folks act on certain hands then they should still be in our sample space, but not with full weight. An easy way to sim this is to count the number of deals attempted, and if you want to get something only 20% of the time then do the equivalent of {dealnumber % 5 != 1} reject.

On scoring this project, likely it would make more sense to do IMP scoring against other players frequencies. So I said 4S on board 1. Rather than give me -100 give me 0 IMPs for everyone who said 4S or X and give me +11 IMPs for everyone who passed. Similar for all the players. My raw score was -2870, although if you take my answers on all except pass on board 3 instead of 4♠ it would drop me to -2420. But to tell how good/bad/etc. that all really is without some sort of IMPing. I guess unless we were supposed to bid as MP in which case MP against the other answers (I was thinking IMP in the bidding).

[AyunuS]

My score: -650 +450 -650 +200 -200 -690 +300 -200 +100 -1100 -420 +420 +100 -450 -800 +450 +650 -420 -500 +500 -420 -200 +300 =-3230. Ugh I'd like to see more of an IMP score but I don't feel like trying to calculate that. I know my score looks bad but I think the other team has the advantage on a lot of these hands. And on some of these, I'm not sure if the credit was even given to what was actually the best choice on average.