ATB slam
#2
Posted 2014-December-27, 19:29
Honestly, I don't understand why this is posted as an ATB. What could North possibly do any differently? I see no plausible alternative to any of North's bids.
-- Bertrand Russell
#3
Posted 2014-December-27, 20:17
imagine if the bidding starts out:
1s=1nt
3c=4s
#4
Posted 2014-December-27, 22:51
After 4 NT RKCB, North answered 5 ♣ -- presumably 1 key card.
If the key card is the ♠ K, then North holds either the ♥ K or a ♥ singleton. That would leave the partnership with 1 sure ♥ loser. Then South has to find cover cards in North's hand for potential losers in ♣ and ♦.
If the key card is the ♥ A, then South still has a potential ♥ loser and must find the ♠ K onside to avoid a ♠ loser. That's in addition to finding cover cards so there are no losers in the minors.
In either case, it's a tall order to expect all the necessary cover cards to take 12 tricks to be in North's hand. So bidding slam is just too aggressive.
#5
Posted 2014-December-28, 02:06
rmnka447, on 2014-December-27, 22:51, said:
After 4 NT RKCB, North answered 5 ♣ -- presumably 1 key card.
If the key card is the ♠ K, then North holds either the ♥ K or a ♥ singleton. That would leave the partnership with 1 sure ♥ loser. Then South has to find cover cards in North's hand for potential losers in ♣ and ♦.
If the key card is the ♥ A, then South still has a potential ♥ loser and must find the ♠ K onside to avoid a ♠ loser. That's in addition to finding cover cards so there are no losers in the minors.
In either case, it's a tall order to expect all the necessary cover cards to take 12 tricks to be in North's hand. So bidding slam is just too aggressive.
You are right, on your thoughts but seems to me you are suggesting that those thoughts should be made aftter 4NT and south should bid 5♠. this is very very wrong. Once he has bid 4NT south has no rights to stay in 5 with only 1 keycard missing, he is forced to bid 6, doing otherwise would be like showing a different number of aces he has.
Your thoughts should be made before 4NT is bid, south is very minimum and knowing the ammopunt of keycards won't help him evaluate, so he should rather keep cuebidding (5♣), or better yet, as mgoetze said, bid 4♠ over 3♠ (3NT showing a balanced hand would also help)
#6
Posted 2014-December-28, 02:47
#7
Posted 2014-December-28, 04:37
ahydra
#8
Posted 2014-December-28, 04:45
North -20% for putting up with South
Mgoetze and Fluffy said it all.
Rik
The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the new discoveries, is not Eureka! (I found it!), but Thats funny Isaac Asimov
The only reason God did not put "Thou shalt mind thine own business" in the Ten Commandments was that He thought that it was too obvious to need stating. - Kenberg
#9
Posted 2014-December-28, 05:11
mgoetze, on 2014-December-27, 19:29, said:
I understand that some have fallen in love with Serious / Non-Serious 3NT. But love makes blind.
For my money I think 3NT as a suggestion to play is by far the best description of the South hand over 3♠.
And I would bet that 9 times out of 10 playing these 2 hands in 3NT would bring in all the matchpoints.
(I would have opened the hand with 2NT or rebid 2NT after 2♦)
The worst bid by far was 4NT. 4♠ over 4♥ stands out - the natural way of saying your slam try was not so serious.
Rainer Herrmann
#10
Posted 2014-December-28, 05:17
rhm, on 2014-December-28, 05:11, said:
Disagree. Bidding 4♠ over 4♥ implies to partner that a diamond control is missing; partner may have a much stronger hand and slam may be missed. 4♠ immediately over 3♠ is a much better description.
While I have a lot of sympathy for opening this hand 2NT (or even 2♣ with a 2NT rebid), I think it is massively impractical to allow for getting back to NT once you have decided to sell it as an unbalanced hand with spades and found a fit. There just isn't enough room over 2♣-2♦-2♠ for that sort of thing.
-- Bertrand Russell
#11
Posted 2014-December-28, 05:22
Still, I would attribute this to "it's not rocket science"... If north had the ♥J slam would be close to 50%, and that's a card only a relay system can find.
At MPs it's probably better to bid game over 3♠. If you can dig 12 tricks from the play, you're probably over 60% anyway.
#12
Posted 2014-December-29, 07:34
mgoetze, on 2014-December-27, 19:29, said:
Honestly, I don't understand why this is posted as an ATB. What could North possibly do any differently? I see no plausible alternative to any of North's bids.
Even if you are playing serious/nonserious you run into the same cue bidding problems seen with
the other systems. Responder is forced to bid 4h and then opener cannot merely sign off in 4s
with both minors controlled (you noted this later) since responder can be much stronger and
fear a wide open minor suit for slam purposes when you bid 4s.
IMHO there is indeed room this is an ideal hand for a 4s bid even if playing some gadget for
3n. Opener is balanced and minimum (subminimum?) and has no interest in slam opposite anything
less than a 10 count which responder would feel compelled to make a slam try with anyway. I tend
to use 3n as showing at least 2 of the top 3 trump honors and I would still bid 4s over 3s
because the 3n bid itself should show slam interest opposite a minimum.
It does not hurt the partnership to invest an extra level when the 5 level if pretty safe but here
it is not if responder is near minimum for their bidding (they have promised around 1 ace worth of value).
#14
Posted 2014-December-29, 07:49
-gwnn
#16
Posted 2014-December-29, 09:52
ahydra, on 2014-December-28, 04:37, said:
ahydra
Or 2nt but my partner too frequently upgrades for the 5th spade so I can see 2♣
The more serious error (?) is trotting out big black instead of a 5♣ cue, then 5♠ denies a red King. Even that may be too high but it's a favorite.
What is baby oil made of?
#17
Posted 2014-December-29, 09:59
#18
Posted 2014-December-29, 11:30
#19
Posted 2014-December-29, 23:13
Fluffy, on 2014-December-28, 02:06, said:
Your thoughts should be made before 4NT is bid, south is very minimum and knowing the ammopunt of keycards won't help him evaluate, so he should rather keep cuebidding (5♣), or better yet, as mgoetze said, bid 4♠ over 3♠ (3NT showing a balanced hand would also help)
I don't disagree with your comments about going through this thought process before bidding 4 NT RKCB. Even if North has BOTH missing key cards, South should see 6 ♠ is in no way assured. That should be enough to dissuade South from using it because it can't get the information needed to know slam is a good bet.
However, I will disagree that once South uses 4 NT that 6 ♠ must be bid. South has taken over captaincy of the hand by using RKCB. If South sees from the response that 6 isn't odds on to make, then bidding 6 is insane. It's better for South to take the heat for not bidding 6 when rarely North holds the miracle hand than to bid on to an almost certain hopeless slam.
I'll agree that if South still wants to aggressively try for slam a 5 ♣ cue is a better option.
I'll also agree that 4 ♠ over 3 ♠ is probably the best option of all. Unless North can make a move toward slam over 4 ♠, it's probably not there.
#20
Posted 2014-December-30, 04:34