Posted 2013-April-24, 18:22
I think in order 3♠ , to make sense, pd should be weak both in hearts and clubs, or he could have bid the one which he is not concerned about. (or am i a bit off on this ? ) His likely shapes are
3244
3343
3442
3253
3352
Assume he is weak in both of the unbid suits and has a super 3 card spade fit, which makes him holding something like (i would not consider 3♠ with 3343 shape personally)
AKx
xx
AQxx
xxxx
AKx
xxxx
AQJx
xx
AKx
xx
AQxxx
xxx
AKx
xxx
AQxxx
xx
I can see how 4♠ could be superior when pd has 5th ♦ and only 2 clubs. But we will have issues each time one of the opponents have 4 card spade and they force us to ruff 3rd ♣ when pd has 3rd ♣. When pd has 3 card hearts and only 2 card clubs obviously we are in big trouble in 3NT, however 4♠ will not make either unless pd has 5th diamond. If 4432 shapes are ok to bid 3♠ i think 3 NT stands out better. But if we expect opener to hold 5 card diamonds for his 3♠ more often, there is a case to bid 4♠ imo.
I would personally bid 3NT, even when it is wrong it may turn out good, they may not lead it, or they may not have enough club tricks to defeat or they may block it. Also when it is wrong 4♠ may not be cold.
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