[billw55]

I admit, I don't see why a spade is so much more likely to give away a trick than a heart - and enough more likely, to make it worth giving up the extra chances to beat the contract. Setting them is also worth some matchpoints, right?

Maybe this perception is something that will come with experience.

[fromageGB]

billw55, on 2013-January-12, 09:18, said:

I admit, I don't see why a spade is so much more likely to give away a trick than a heart - and enough more likely, to make it worth giving up the extra chances to beat the contract. Setting them is also worth some matchpoints, right?

Maybe this perception is something that will come with experience.

Yes, it is worth something when it works out, the satisfaction of getting a whopping +50 rather than a -400, maybe an absolute top. But not more matchpoints in the long term. Look at it this way, and follow through the arithmetic.

Suppose dummy has ♠A65 ♥A654 and declarer has ♠Q32 ♥Q82.
You lead a small spade, and declarer wins 2 tricks in that suit, ie Q then A. In hearts he has 2 trick, as his Q is on top of partner's K. Total 4 tricks.
You lead a heart, and declarer wins only the same 2 tricks in that suit, and when he plays spades, he will win only 1 trick as your K will cover declarer's Q. Total 3 tricks.
Your spade lead has given away a trick.

Of course there are many distributions, but you are very likely to lose a trick when declarer has the Q.

Now look at matchpoints. Assume there is a 25% chance of the spade lead resulting in +50 when partner has spade values AND you need the tempo of the lead to get those tricks, 25% chance it makes no difference -400, and 50% chance of -430 when you give a trick away, while a passive lead such as a heart or club results in -400.

Assume 8 results, the first 4 of the leaders choosing a spade, and the last 4 of the leaders choosing a passive. Scores will be +50, -400, -430, -430, -400, -400, -400, -400, and the english matchpoints correspondingly 14,8,1,1,8,8,8,8. A spade lead on average gets you (14+8+1+1)/4 or 6 matchpoints, a passive lead (8+8+8+8)/4 or 8 matchpoints.
The passive lead wins.

So more people will make a passive lead rather than an aggressive lead. Suppose 12 results, and 4 leaders choose spades, and 8 passive. Add 4 more -400s on the end of that list. Matchpoints are now 22,12,1,1,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12. A spade lead on average gets you (22+12+1+1)/4 or 9 matchpoints, a passive lead 12 matchpoints. Passive wins out just the same.

Even assuming you are in an aggressive field, where 4 lead a spade and only 2 passive, the matchpoints are 10,6,1,1,6,6, and a spade lead gets you (10+6+1+1)/4 or 4.5, while a passive lead gets 6 matchpoints. Passive wins again.

You will note that in all cases the ratio is the same, the aggressive lead getting 3/4 the matchpoints of the passive.

The above assumes everyone is playing the same contract, as is often the case when it is 3NT. Other considerations come into play when you expect that you will be defending an unusual contract.

It all depends on your goals and objectives. Do you want the excitement of some tops and more bottoms, or do you want a boring good result?