HighLow21, on 2012-April-04, 16:05, said:
Thought about it some more and I seriously think 3D is a mistake here. There are some benefits (namely taking up space and pressuring the opponents) but to me the disadvantages are huge.
(1) There is nothing to suggest they will necessarily bid game here. They probably will, but a major suit game is unlikely if partner has some decent spades, which is as likely as not. (Corollary: any major suit game is going to break badly in both majors for them)
(2) Partner could have 2 defensive tricks and enable us to beat a game. We could have as much as 20 HCP combined. This hand might even be passed out!
(3) We might get creamed in 3D doubled without a game on for them. Also, the marked defensive diamond lead might help them assess their hands better.
(4) Opponents tend to bid aggressively Vul at IMPs, and they tend to bid TOO aggressively against preempts. They are more likely to bid and make a thin game by accident because I pushed them so high.
(5) If partner is on lead I don't want to demand a diamond lead. It will probably be a waste of timing. Either major could be better. Heck, clubs could be better.
(6) If a sacrifice is appropriate, partner will misjudge the number of losers we have in diamonds (as well as the length of my diamonds). It may lead to a sacrifice worse than their partscore, game or slam.
So my bid is 2D. Pass is next, followed by a psychic 1D or 1H. The one bid you will NOT see me make is 3D.
I would be much more likely to bid 3D with:
x
JTxx
QJT8xx
xx
Because now I KNOW they have a game or slam and diamonds could be a great sacrifice. Heck I would consider 4D.
I swear I'm not responding because it's you (in fact, I considered _not_ responding because it's you). However, to your points:
I don't see (2) as a reason not to preempt. If anything, opps are more likely to bid a game (possibly the wrong one, if there's a right one) if we preempt, and if partner has defensive tricks, great. Also, re: your comment in (1), they are getting a bad break in both majors, which is great for us.
Re: (3), your intermediates are not that bad, and at these colors, if they have enough to penalize 3D after a takeout, they are at least considering 3N. Plus, you know there are spades somewhere around the table. I think it's really unlikely that we play 3Dx.
(4) is a legit concern but again is somewhat balanced out by (2).
(5) I dont think anything is ever demanded. Also it's not at all clear that partner will be on lead.
And (6), you follow up by saying you'd consider 4D with x / Jxxx / QJxxxx / xx, which I find totally inconsistent. I don't know why partner is thinking about your losers specifically in the diamond suit. He's thinking about your losers in general. If he bumps you to 5/6 diamonds, it's incredibly unlikely that you'll have more than one loser in diamonds anyway. Your 6-4 has similar playing strength to a 7222, and I think it's certainly worth a bump to 3D. As I told OP privately, other calls that crossed my mind were 1D, 1H, and 2D. Ranking them, I think 3D > 1D > 1H > 2D, though I think the last two are close (as both are pretty bad, at least 1H serves as a lead director though).
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg
"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other. -- Hamman, re: Wolff