[phil_20686]

Vampyr, on 2012-February-06, 17:46, said:

Where I live handicapping is rare, but there is enough action to allow a large number of bookmaking firms of various sizes to do a lot of business. So I am not convinced that handicapping is more attractive for either the bookmakers or the punters. Perhaps it just depends on what you are used to.

But what you are saying makes sense if people tend to "bet with their hearts" and not with their heads.

I suspect as well it has to do with the size of the fan bases. In the UK, a lot of sports betting is done by independents, ie, those who dont really support either team, but just like to watch foot ball and so put a bet on a match every week. If this is the case, simply making the odds close to the RL chances will ensure roughly the same number bet each way.

If the betting on a match is dominated by the fan bases, this will not work if the fan bases are different sizes. Moreover, attempting to change the odds to make it work leaves arbitrage opportunities for professional gamblers. The odds cannot move away from the RL chances. However, a spread bet can change this. Particularly if your betting fans are not that clear. Suppose your model/prediction is for A to beat B by ten points. If you give a handicap of 5 points on the spread, does that make B twice as likely to win? three times as likely? answer - it depends on the variance. If humans are bad at estimating the effects of the handicap on the outcome, then that increases the action for the book maker, independently of the other effects. If team B's fan base is smaller, it will also lower the bookies risk of losing a lot of money on the bet, since more of the bets will cancel out if the unexpected happens.

[phil_20686]

billw55, on 2012-February-06, 19:29, said:

I think this is a big part of it - bettor psychology.

A shrewd bettor can use this to their own advantage. Keep a lookout for those situations where the line appears irrational, which will usually be due to large national fan support for a particular team, or a media-fed perception of inevitability. There was a time when one could make a living just betting against Notre Dame.

[/hijack]

I am reliably informed that there are hedge funds who make a profit out of arbitrage opportunities in the difference in betting odds between different countries.

[helene_t]

hrothgar, on 2012-February-06, 12:50, said:

More broadly, it involves taking an action which is suboptimal locally but optimal globally.

I know nothing about American Footie but it sounds to me as if there is a difference.

A Merimac Coup is not dumping.

[billw55]

phil_20686, on 2012-February-07, 06:12, said:

I am reliably informed that there are hedge funds who make a profit out of arbitrage opportunities in the difference in betting odds between different countries.

Interesting .. sort of like catching a middle?

[Vampyr]

phil_20686, on 2012-February-07, 06:12, said:

I am reliably informed that there are hedge funds who make a profit out of arbitrage opportunities in the difference in betting odds between different countries.

It is often possible to make a profit by betting on both sides of the initial coin toss.

[gwnn]

Vampyr, on 2012-February-07, 07:36, said:

It is often possible to make a profit by betting on both sides of the initial coin toss.

I'm curious - how is this possible? I've always seen coin toss odds somewhere between 1.8-1.9 (4/5..9/10 in British terminology I think?).

[y66]

+3.5 -2.5 to Helene for the coup analogy.

[Vampyr]

gwnn, on 2012-February-07, 07:55, said:

I'm curious - how is this possible? I've always seen coin toss odds somewhere between 1.8-1.9 (4/5..9/10 in British terminology I think?).

The first is British terminology. The key is to find longer-than-even odds on betting exchanges.

[BunnyGo]

mgoetze, on 2012-February-06, 18:52, said:

Sending a 12th man onto the field just to shave 8 seconds off the remaining 17 is pretty ridiculous - Law 72B1 should apply.

It can only hurt the team that sent the 12th man out. Either the play stands, or the NOS gets free yardage. Furthermore, the game cannot end, so there is an upper limit on the amount of time the play takes.