[shevek]

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Butler IMPs

[JLOGIC]

Clear 4N

[whereagles]

Anything can work here, but I'll pass.

Reasoning is pard's aces are in my shorter suits, so they might take tricks.

[frank0]

Clear pass in my view, this hand is too balance to bid.

[the hog]

Clear 4NT bid.

[whereagles]

Well... placing pard with a 4144 and using Law of Total Tricks lore, we got 19 total tricks. If we make 11, they're going 2 down. That seems to encourage biding, but what if 10 tricks are our max? Some basic maths could sort out what the percentage action is, but I can't be bothered so I stick to my original pass lol.

[JLOGIC]

And what if partner has a heart void? Down 1 in both 5C and 4H is possible but I'm not willing to gamble on it, it could be a double gamer and if one makes and the other is down 1, that is a huge swing.

[nige1]

Butler IMPs

IMO P = 10, 4N = 8, 5♣ = 6. Partner may not appreciate why you want him to play five of minor if he holds, say
♠ QJTx ♥ Ax ♦ AKxx ♣ Kxx
I suppose that JLOGIC is right that partner probably has a heart singleton or void. Nevertheless, there is likely to be spade duplication

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[whereagles]

@justin: True, but if you wanna reason that way, pard might also have 4153 and it's 18 total tricks and 3 down in 4♥ And if he happens to have 2 hearts (can happen, as you probably know well from experience), bidding is awful in just about all circumstances.

I gave the 4144 example as a general guideline. Agree that dbl swing is possible, but so is +500 vs partscore

[JLOGIC]

If partner is 4153 we have a 9 card diamond fit. 5143 is the only shape where we don't have a 9 card fit.

[robkat]

I find it amusing that bridge players have such strong opinions on hands such as this (as in politics where a political debate takes on wildly exaggerated claims). This is a close decision. In a short match, it is more important to be right frequently than right in the long term. In a long match or a match that is going against you, I would go for the double game swing.

So I strongly disagree with those that have strong opinions on this.

[whereagles]

JLOGIC, on 2011-April-18, 07:25, said:

If partner is 4153 we have a 9 card diamond fit. 5143 is the only shape where we don't have a 9 card fit.

Ah yes. I'm gonna be stubborn and stick to pass, though

[whereagles]

robkat, on 2011-April-18, 07:47, said:

I find it amusing that bridge players have such strong opinions on hands such as this (as in politics where a political debate takes on wildly exaggerated claims). This is a close decision. In a short match, it is more important to be right frequently than right in the long term. In a long match or a match that is going against you, I would go for the double game swing.

So I strongly disagree with those that have strong opinions on this.

Strongly agree to this post

[MrAce]

Whereagles it depends on how you count the trumps. About counting the trumps; they have 9 or 10 or 11 cards fit, in average they have 10 cards fit. We have a less likely 8 cards fit and less likely 10 card fit but in average 9 card fit.

19 trumps + and i always add +1 for them jumping to 4 and i dont see any negative adjustment in my hand. When both sides are keen to bid at 4 or 5 level it is almost always right to add +1.

I think 20 trumps is enough to bid on. So i bid 4 NT.
If we pass 4♥ Dbled

We take 12 tricks, they take 8 +500 instead of +620 (and very unlikely +1370)
We take 11 tricks, they take 9 +200 instead of +600
We take 10 tricks, they take 10 -790 instead of -100 or -200
We take 9 tricks, they take 11 -990 instead of -500

But of course it is still a high level decision and no guarantee there are 20 trumps, LOTT is just a guide. But even if i made a mistake and there were only 19 tricks total, bidding on loses only if the tricks are divided 9 vs 10 and we are the ones making 10.

[655321]

For me double is takeout (not penalty, not cards, not 'convertible values') so 4NT is very clear.

robkat, on 2011-April-18, 07:47, said:

I find it amusing that bridge players have such strong opinions on hands such as this (as in politics where a political debate takes on wildly exaggerated claims). This is a close decision. In a short match, it is more important to be right frequently than right in the long term. In a long match or a match that is going against you, I would go for the double game swing.

So I strongly disagree with those that have strong opinions on this.

Of course it makes little sense to say 'This is a very close decision and my bid is the only right one!' but I don't see anybody saying that. You think the decision is close so naturally you disagree with those who think it is not close. Yes, if a decision truly is very close then in the long run it doesn't matter what you do, but in my opinion when someone says 'doesn't matter, anything could be right', very often one option is actually better than the others, and thinking of it as a coin toss is just a cop out.

(Oh, and read JLogic's signature!)

[bluecalm]

Quote

Whereagles it depends on how you count the trumps. About counting the trumps; they have 9 or 10 or 11 cards fit, in average they have 10 cards fit. We have a less likely 8 cards fit and less likely 10 card fit but in average 9 card fit.

19 trumps + and i always add +1 for them jumping to 4 and i dont see any negative adjustment in my hand. When both sides are keen to bid at 4 or 5 level it is almost always right to add +1.

I really don't think there is any point in this kind of analysis. The law is like pulling out the crystal ball or tarot cards. I now it's comforting to have something to rely on but it just doesn't work.

[whereagles]

MrAce: yeah, passing works ok only if they go down vs a non-making game. In all other cases, bidding on is preferable.

If we do a FTL approach, we rate to have 21-23 working points and a short suit total of about +3 (our spade doubleton, pard's heart singleton). That hints at we making 11 tricks, 10 with bad luck. Let's give pard a typical hand:

AQxx
x
AKxx
KQxx

22 WP, which can easily be 23 with the spade finesse likely to work. I definitely want to bid 5m here, so probably 4NT is in the long run the better bid.

[Phil]

I think this is pretty close, but I'm a passer and here's why:

1. We have a lousy hand thats relatively balanced.

2. Our doubleton spade isn't offensive at all. In a lot of cases where we are making 5♣, we are getting a spade ruff against 4♥.

3. Yes, partner can have a heart void. He can also have xx (and if he's doubling he has a rock, and we are crushing 4♥).

4. I would be really surprised if we had a double game swing here, since there isn't a double fit.

Whereagles, I don't think your example is very compelling. If I am making 5♣ with the spade hook and 3-2 diamonds, I am getting 500 / 800 (with a spade ruff) out of 4♥ which isn't a big loss/gain. OTOH, if diamonds are 4-1, 5♣ is failing, yet we are probably still getting our spade ruff for 500 vs 4♥.

In spite of the hyperbole in this thread, would anyone really be surprised if either action was the winner? I would be surprised if the EV for either is more that 3-4 IMPs over the other.

Good hand for a sim.

[MrAce]

bluecalm, on 2011-April-19, 02:38, said:

I really don't think there is any point in this kind of analysis. The law is like pulling out the crystal ball or tarot cards. I now it's comforting to have something to rely on but it just doesn't work.

Well i think you failed to read what i wrote. I specifically mentioned that The Law is just a guide. And The Law is all about EXACTLY for this kind of analysis, where you face a decision in competition whether to pass or to bid, showing the possible outcomes of your decision

In fact with this analysis, i believe i did a good job by explaining WHY i bid 4 NT. Instead of just posting " i bid 4NT "

Whether you agree or disagree with my reasoning, or method that i choose, telling me that there was no point is pointless, especially when comes from someone who had nothing to say about the topic but pointing fingers to people saying there was no point for their analysis.

I am not a big LAW follower but you saying that The Law just doesn't work, will not convince me, since you frequently change your mind about things you seem to be so sure earlier.

[JLOGIC]

Phil, on 2011-April-19, 09:33, said:

I think this is pretty close, but I'm a passer and here's why:

1. We have a lousy hand thats relatively balanced.

2. Our doubleton spade isn't offensive at all. In a lot of cases where we are making 5♣, we are getting a spade ruff against 4♥.

3. Yes, partner can have a heart void. He can also have xx (and if he's doubling he has a rock, and we are crushing 4♥).

4. I would be really surprised if we had a double game swing here, since there isn't a double fit.

Whereagles, I don't think your example is very compelling. If I am making 5♣ with the spade hook and 3-2 diamonds, I am getting 500 / 800 (with a spade ruff) out of 4♥ which isn't a big loss/gain. OTOH, if diamonds are 4-1, 5♣ is failing, yet we are probably still getting our spade ruff for 500 vs 4♥.

In spite of the hyperbole in this thread, would anyone really be surprised if either action was the winner? I would be surprised if the EV for either is more that 3-4 IMPs over the other.

Good hand for a sim.

1) What is "relatively balanced" in this case though. When there are only 3 suits that concern us, I would say 2-4-5 is not balanced. I think looking at your doubleton heart and considering it balanced is wrong. And 2-4-5 is much better than 3-3-5 or 3-4-4, and of course with a 6 bagger or 4 spades I assume everyone would insta bid.

2) Yes, our doubleton spade could be a good defensive value, but this doesn't make it not offensive at all. The doubleton spade is an all around good asset.

3) This is really the crux of the matter.

In my opinion, people make huge errors in not differentiating between auctions where it's gone Bid X bid p p X, and Bid X.

For instance, if it had gone 4H X p ?, I would agree, partner is more likely to have a doubleton heart than a heart void. Partner hasn't bid yet, so he is under pressure with a doubleton heart, and just in general RHO has not supported and might be short, so that increases partner's chance for having a doubleton.

However, this auction is the auction where they are MOST likely to have a 10 card fit. The 4H bid is usually based on 5. This is especially true if RHO has no values. Likewise, partner is not under as much pressure, he's doubled once. We have already passed once hearing his double when we would have stretched to bid with a stiff. He would need a really good hand to double with a doubleton heart, which he is unlikely to have since that would probably give RHO 4 hearts and a yarborough, which in real life is unlikely.

In this auction, when we hold this hand, I'd say partner is way more likely to have a heart void than a doubleton and it's not close. That is why 655321 and I presumably feel so strongly that passing is bad.

4) I have no idea what this means. A double game swing is more likely if they have 2 fits than if they just have 11 trumps? Likewise, we are very likely to have a double fit ourselves...they just won't because they have such a long single fit which is also a recipe for a double game swing.

5) You say you wouldn't be surprised if the EV of one action is more than 3-4 imps over another.

3-4 imps!!! That would make it one of the most important decisions you make in an entire 64 board match in the bidding. That is an enormous amount in EV. It would be tough to make a blunder of 3-4 imps on one bid in EV, unless you messed up a slam hand really badly.