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What does this suggest? Long hesitation

#1 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 01:12

2-2
3-4NT
5-...6NT

2 showed a strong balanced hand, or 9 playing tricks, or a GF. The 3 identified it as the 9 playing trick type hand.

2 was a relay

4NT was RKCB

5 showed 2 key cards (no trump queen)

6NT was agreed to be slow. What do you think this suggests?
Gordon Rainsford
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#2 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 01:20

Uncertainty between 6 and 6NT. Possibly uncertainty between a 6 level and a 7 level contract. Not sure I can articulate why I think so, in either case.
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#3 User is offline   StevenG 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 01:24

It depends on whether it's MPs or IMPs.
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#4 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 01:26

View PostStevenG, on 2011-April-04, 01:24, said:

It depends on whether its MPs or IMPs.

IMPs
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#5 User is offline   RMB1 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 01:27

View Postgordontd, on 2011-April-04, 01:12, said:

6NT was agreed to be slow. What do you think this suggests?

Not much really.

Either a hand that wants to make a grand slam try but doesn't know what 5NT ... 6 mean, or that they will be useful, or that they will be forcing(?).

Or a hand that is somewhat suitable for 6 or somewhat unsuitable for 6NT.
Robin

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#6 User is offline   StevenG 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 02:01

If I was the 6NT bidder, it would mean I was searching for a more scientific sequence but couldn't find one.
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#7 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 03:21

View PostStevenG, on 2011-April-04, 02:01, said:

If I was the 6NT bidder, it would mean I was searching for a more scientific sequence but couldn't find one.

This, but the implication is probably that "I might be wishing to investigate 7 but can't think of how", so partner had better have a 10th trick to bid 7.

The only question is could I be wanting to bid 5 and a half rather than 6 and a half, and I think the answer is no, I don't think I'd have gone straight to Blackwood.

5 was probably an unexpected response to Blackwood if it genuinely is 2 rather than 2 or 5, so I'm not surprised there was thought, I suspect the thought was more "What the hell has he got with 9 playing tricks and only 2 key cards".
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#8 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 04:08

I tend to agree with Robin. I think it is clear that there is doubt whether 6NT is the right contract, but it is pretty impossible to tell whether it is a 6/6NT decision or a small/grand slam decision.

For example, if I knew we were missing a key card then, as the 4NT bidder, I would expect my bid over 5 to end the auction. I would feel that it is worth taking the time to consider whether 6 or 6NT is the better spot, considerations like likely ruffs, lead up to my hand etc.

So hesitation would not suggest anything significant.

p
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I don't work for BBO and any advice is based on my BBO experience over the decades
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#9 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 04:57

The question should be "what does this demonstrably suggest?", and, as we have seen from the answers, just alternative bids or routes, which are difficult to establish.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#10 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 06:42

View PostRMB1, on 2011-April-04, 01:27, said:

Not much really.

Either a hand that wants to make a grand slam try but doesn't know what 5NT ... 6 mean, or that they will be useful, or that they will be forcing(?).

Or a hand that is somewhat suitable for 6 or somewhat unsuitable for 6NT.

Hi Robin,

I tried to get hold of you to discuss this last night, but couldn't get you on the phone. I ended up discussing it with Max, and we agreed that the slow 6NT didn't suggest bidding on - we thought the most likely reason for the hesitation was wondering whether to bid 6S or 6NT.

Now for the followup: while opener was waiting for responder to bid, he realised that he had misbid on the previous round, and he actually had three keycards, not two. So, he raised 6NT to 7NT, since his partner had been happy to play in 6NT believing there was a keycard missing. Any problem with this?
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#11 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 07:01

You decided the BIT did not suggest bidding on. So if the player bids on, he has not committed an infraction.
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#12 User is offline   LH2650 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 07:15

It suggests bidding on. I would have decided what I would do over each of partner's likely responses before I bid 4NT. His actual response was clearly unexpected, so my hesitation suggests that he do a recount.
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#13 User is offline   dburn 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 07:23

View Postgordontd, on 2011-April-04, 06:42, said:

Hi Robin,

I tried to get hold of you to discuss this last night, but couldn't get you on the phone. I ended up discussing it with Max, and we agreed that the slow 6NT didn't suggest bidding on - we thought the most likely reason for the hesitation was wondering whether to bid 6S or 6NT.

Now for the followup: while opener was waiting for responder to bid, he realised that he had misbid on the previous round, and he actually had three keycards, not two. So, he raised 6NT to 7NT, since his partner had been happy to play in 6NT believing there was a keycard missing. Any problem with this?

The only problem would be if you thought the guy was bidding slowly in order to give partner time to recount his key cards (perhaps surprised to find so few opposite). Difficult to prove, though, even if you suspected it.
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#14 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 08:09

When the hesitation is by someone who is known to be missing a keycard, it definitely doesn't suggest bidding seven.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#15 User is offline   iviehoff 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 08:29

Suppose the player had passed rather than bid 6N. Would you as opponents complain that he should have bid on to a 7N (which goes off on a cruel break or something), having found the extra key card, but was warned off by the break in tempo? I think I might.
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#16 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 09:00

View Postgordontd, on 2011-April-04, 01:12, said:

2-2
3-4NT
5-...6NT

2 showed a strong balanced hand, or 9 playing tricks, or a GF. The 3 identified it as the 9 playing trick type hand.

2 was a relay

4NT was RKCB

5 showed 2 key cards (no trump queen)

6NT was agreed to be slow. What do you think this suggests?


Silly hypothetical question

Assume for the moment that I ran the following experiment

I present 50 people with the following:

The 2 opener's hand
The auction up to 6NT (along with all the meanings but no information about the hesitation)
I then asked them to chose their bid...

Next, I surveyed a different group of 50 people

These people get the following information

The 2 opener's hand
The auction up to 6NT (along with all the meanings and information about the hesitation
I then asked them to chose their bid acting on the hesitation

I then check and see whether there is a statistically significant difference between the two sets of responses:

1. If there is no difference between the set of responses, no harm / no foul (nothing is demonstrably suggested by the bid)
2. If there is a statistically significant difference, we now have precise information about what is/is not suggested

Would folks consider this type of information at all helpful?


In this day and age, where everyone and their brother has access to web browser it would be pretty easy to design this type of survey mechanism.

Imaging the following:

I - and a thousand other people - get a instant message saying that there is an appeals committee involving an Acol auction. I fancy myself an Acol expert, so I agree to participate

I go to a web site that presents me with the 2C opener

I get asked for my bid (if I answer anything other than 2C, I get booted because I'm not part of the peer group. If I answer 2C, I advance to the next stage of the process. I'm now told that partner has responded 2. I am tested to see whether I would respond 2... In an ideal world, I might never even know which bid involved a hesitation...)
Alderaan delenda est
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#17 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 09:11

View Postiviehoff, on 2011-April-04, 08:29, said:

Suppose the player had passed rather than bid 6N. Would you as opponents complain that he should have bid on to a 7N (which goes off on a cruel break or something), having found the extra key card, but was warned off by the break in tempo? I think I might.

? Wouldn't the auction have been over at 5H? If so, maybe the the cruel break would be in trumps, breaking 6-3 in the defenders's hands.
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#18 User is offline   bluejak 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 09:54

What does it suggest? Doubt.

Perhaps he was wondering whether to bid a slam or sign off in 5 - it is amazing the number of people who wait for the response to Blackwood without deciding this first.

Perhaps he was wondering whether to bid a slam in spades or no-trumps.

Perhaps he was wondering whether to try for a grand or not.

Perhaps he felt he had enough to try for grand but could not think of a way of finding out [it is less than 24 hours since I thought in a similar position for this reason].

Perhaps he was wondering whether the absence of the trump queen mattered for six.

Perhaps he was wondering whether the absence of the trump queen mattered for seven.

Perhaps he was wondering what to have for tea later on.
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#19 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 14:49

Quote

Perhaps he was wondering what to have for tea later on.


Wasn't that excuse ridiculed in my thread on UI rules - the player should be focusing on the game? :) It may not have been you who ridiculed it though [in fact, I'm pretty sure it wasn't]

I agree that in this case there's no way of telling what was being thought about. As lamford pointed out, it's what's demonstrably suggested that counts, and nothing seems to be. I'm not sure I can find anything wrong with the raising 6NT to 7NT either for the same reason - unless, of course, there were some facial expressions involved...

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#20 User is offline   RMB1 

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Posted 2011-April-04, 14:57

View Postgordontd, on 2011-April-04, 06:42, said:

Now for the followup: while opener was waiting for responder to bid, he realised that he had misbid on the previous round, and he actually had three keycards, not two. So, he raised 6NT to 7NT, since his partner had been happy to play in 6NT believing there was a keycard missing. Any problem with this?


Yes, some unease.

A systematic application of Law 16 suggests there is no infraction.

But cyberyeti and dburn make good points: perhaps the hesitation suggests the key card response was wrong, and/or the hesitation suggests partner thinks again.

We have seen before where a hesitation in the play leads to the right defence by partner. Often the hesitation does not demonstrably suggest the right play and perhaps there is no logical alternative to the right play. Nevertheless, we know that without the hesitation, the defender might have defended carelessly and misdefended; with the hesitation, the defender gives the defence sufficient thought (at the right time) and does not miss the right play. It is not clear that there has been an infraction of Law 16.

In this case, is it a logical alternative to not look at your hand again and simply pass 6NT, knowing that partner is captain of the auction? Does the hesitation suggest you look at your hand again and re-count your key cards? Certainly the hesitation gives you time to do so, and therefore makes it more likely that you will do so(?)

There is a case that the hesitation has prompted opener to re-count his key cards, and in doing so opener has taken advantage of the hesitation. So perhaps there has been an infraction of Law 73C, if not of Law 16. Of course there is no prescribed penalty for an infraction of Law 73C: a procedureal penalty but score stands does not seem right.
Robin

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