bluecalm, on Aug 11 2010, 11:02 AM, said:
Quote
The book says that the lead gave you an advantage (because of the auction) and you should keep it. So you duck a ♦ to be almost sure of 9 tricks
It's the other way around.
If you think lead gives you advantage the way to keep it is to play diamonds the same way as field does.
If you are somehow sure that
♥ lead will be very rare and that field will be in 3NT then you should play diamonds on top because that's the way field will play so you will beat them all with your extra
♥ trick.
Unfortunately you can never be sure of those things.
I think you're wrong, the same way I was wrong. If we look at the figures, it will become clear. We expect that the
♥ lead will be quite rare, so we can suppose we have an advantage from the lead.
Say you play for
♦ 3-3 (35%) and they split 4-2:
you'll make 8 tricks: 3
♥, 3
♦, 2
♠
others will
also make 8 tricks: 2
♥,
4♦, 2
♠ (unless they play needlessly for the
♥ finesse as well).
Say you play for
♦ 3-3 (35%) and they split 3-3:
you: 10
others: 9
Say you play for
♦ 4-2 (48%) and they split 4-2:
you: 9
others: 8
Say you play for
♦ 4-2 (48%) and they split 3-3:
you: 9
others: 9
Conclusion:
- if you play for 4-2 you'll win 48% of the time
- if you play for 3-3 you'll only win in 35% of the time
So you'll win more by playing for a 4-2 distribution.
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe