[Hanoi5]

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You have this bidding sequence:

1NT Pa 2♥ Pa
2♠ Pa 4♦ Pa
5♣ Pa 6♠ Pa
Pa Pa

And receive a ♥8 lead, on which you play the ♥4 from dummy...

[Jlall]

What? Is this matchpoints or something? At imps it seems like we're asking which is more likely, LHO having a stiff heart RHO having a void, obviously LHO having a stiff heart is wayyyyyy more likely.

[Hanoi5]

♥KJxxx doesn't call for a double of 2♥?

[cherdanno]

Hanoi5, on Oct 15 2009, 06:02 PM, said:

♥KJxxx doesn't call for a double of 2♥?

Make that KJ732. No, I am pretty sure most people would not double.

[Jlall]

I ATTEMPTED MATH AND FAILED!

[Jlall]

OK cherdano said my math is off EPIC FAIL. Anyways main point is:

1) KJxxxx is much less likely than KJ7xx
2) They don't always lead a heart from 6 to the KJ, they always lead one from a stiff
3) They don't always lead the 8 from KJ87xx
4) They sometimes lightner double with a heart void

All of this means that you have to be massively convinced they would have doubled with KJ7xx to go that route.

This brings me to

5) Your edge if your read is right about whether they would X with that or not is very small anyways. Your loss if you are wrong is very large.

A long winded way of saying you are making a very very very anti percentage play in a vacuum, more than you think I think, so you better be damn sure you're right. Here I don't think there's any reason to think that. Most RHOs would not X with KJ7xx and out, it could easily get redoubled and make a million.

[Cyberyeti]

I look at the opening leader and his convention card, does he lead 4th highest and is he the sort of person that's incapable of a false card. If so, ace, no brainer. IMPS ace, no brainer.

Matchpoints if they lead 3rd and 5th it's more of a coin toss, I probably run it in a good field as I'll be losing to anybody in 6N with 12 tricks.

[billw55]

A♥, unless I know something very specific about these opponents. Against unknown ops, stiff 8♥ is by far the biggest risk, and many will not lead low from a king against a slam anyway.

Third best? West has lead from ♥KJ8? I'll pay off to that. Or from ♥KJ8732? Now that would be true clairvoyance.

[pooltuna]

billw55, on Oct 16 2009, 09:07 AM, said:

A♥, unless I know something very specific about these opponents. Against unknown ops, stiff 8♥ is by far the biggest risk, and many will not lead low from a king against a slam anyway.

Third best? West has lead from ♥KJ8? I'll pay off to that. Or from ♥KJ8732? Now that would be true clairvoyance.

At IMPS the A is auto. at MP I would think that a holding of KJ8(x) is pretty standard and likely right behind a stiff 8 in probability of being led by good opponents. So at MPs this is less clear as many rate to be in 6NT where a passive lead is more probable.