[hanp]

Here is a hand from the second weekend of the Dutch league:

Scoring: IMP

p - (1S) - 2H - (p)
??

---

What would you do?

[gnasher]

3♥. That doesn't preclude 3NT - partner can bid 3♠ with something like xx AQJxxx Ax AJx.

[Codo]

3 ♥ I must miss something, because this seems quite obvious.

And yes, if partner asks me, I would prefer 3 NT too.

[Fluffy]

I don't think partner is gonna ask as much as gnasher, but I see no alternative to 3♥

[Hanoi5]

2NT. But if I'm serious I'll probably just bid 3♥ as everyone else.

[billw55]

I would pass. My spades look like doodoo with the bid on my left and partner short.

If partner's hand is so good that we miss game, I ask him why he didn't start with a double.

[cherdanno]

You sure have great spots in Holland. 3♥ for me.

[655321]

2♠ for me. The spots are very good and we are a passed hand.

Second choice would probably be 3♥, it could be right to bid 2NT instead, but to me it always feels wrong to hide support.

[andy_h]

I hate hiding support so 3♥ for me.

[maggieb]

2N, 3N is our most likely game. I don't think this is really close.

[pooltuna]

hanp, on Oct 14 2009, 06:31 AM, said:

Here is a hand from the second weekend of the Dutch league:

Scoring: IMP

p - (1S) - 2H - (p)
??

---

What would you do?

Pass

[pooltuna]

billw55, on Oct 14 2009, 07:29 AM, said:

I would pass. My spades look like doodoo with the bid on my left and partner short.

If partner's hand is so good that we miss game, I ask him why he didn't start with a double.

and he doesn't hold xx AQJxxx Ax AJx and make a crappy 2♥ bid

[jdonn]

Tough one. I sort of like 2♠ since it's the heart raise that keeps 3NT most in the picture, and those are the two things I want to make sure I do, raise hearts and keep 3NT in the picture.

I quite strongly disagree with downgrading for the spade holding, or at least downgrading more than just a hair. Partner can have the ace, or the queen, or the spots help, or you didn't need the king anyway, or it stops a tap, or the ace was onside anyway, or they lead the queen and partner had the jack...

[Jlall]

Wow! I thought the choice was between pass (poorly placed SK ) and 3H. I thought 3H was really normal and pass sucked, guess as evidenced by the cuebidders

I just don't think this hand is worth a cuebid. Partner will bid game over 3H if it's right. To me a cuebid is roughly a limit raise value, so this hand with 3 trumps and a poorly placed king and 8 points and... is just not a LR to me sry.

[Phil]

Do they shuffle in Holland?

This is a HanP special with the middle cards!

Three 10's, three curses and three 8's. TTTKK, 99988, Q86 is my first thought, but TTTKK, 999Q6, 888 rates to sweep.

3♥ looks normal. At MPs, a slightly sick 2N is appealing. I don't see what 2♠ does, other than to overstate my hand.

[eyhung]

pooltuna, on Oct 14 2009, 06:29 AM, said:

hanp, on Oct 14 2009, 06:31 AM, said:

Here is a hand from the second weekend of the Dutch league:

Scoring: IMP

p - (1S) - 2H - (p)
??

---

What would you do?

Pass

Pass?? Well, at least you are consistent with your answers. Playing opposite yourself, you can't raise if you could be overcalling with a flat, jack-high 11-count as you do in http://forums.bridge...showtopic=34772.

But if your minimum to overcall is lower, your maximum must also be lower or you will miss game by passing this hand. That puts extra pressure on the sequence "double then bid hearts". I don't think it's wise to double and bid with a hand such as xx AJxxxx Kx AKx, but opposite your advancing style, you risk playing 2H when game is percentage.

[hanp]

I went with TTTKK 999Q6 888. It turned out my 999Q6 lost but 99988 would have lost as well so this ended up being the best play.

[pooltuna]

Jlall, on Oct 14 2009, 11:20 AM, said:

Wow! I thought the choice was between pass (poorly placed SK ) and 3H. I thought 3H was really normal and pass sucked, guess as evidenced by the cuebidders

I just don't think this hand is worth a cuebid. Partner will bid game over 3H if it's right. To me a cuebid is roughly a limit raise value, so this hand with 3 trumps and a poorly placed king and 8 points and... is just not a LR to me sry.

you shouldn't have to apologize for how you define raises. If available I would have made a constructive raise even with the spade call behind me but I don't have an available call so I have to pass

[Jlall]

hanp, on Oct 14 2009, 11:32 AM, said:

I went with TTTKK 999Q6 888. It turned out my 999Q6 lost but 99988 would have lost as well so this ended up being the best play.

You play chinese? ROFL.

[eyhung]

I thought the question was between 3H and 2NT -- passing seems way too conservative at IMPs unless partner has ridiculous standards for his 2H overcall. From experience, I know 2NT on 8 HCP doesn't work, but I admit my experience is biased in this case because I normally don't hold so many good intermediates.

Out of curiosity, I ran a 1000-hand sim, giving LHO a 1S opening in my style, and partner a 2H overcall in my style (both defensively sound).

In hearts, we average 9 tricks : we make game 37.9% of the time, 9 tricks 30% of the time, and 8 tricks 21.3% of the time. (Of course, down 1 is usually ok because that means it's likely they can make something). So passing seems needlessly pessimistic.

In notrump, on the same dataset, we average 7.4 tricks : we make game (9+ tricks) 25.2% of the time, make 8 tricks 22.6% of the time, and make 7 tricks 23.3% of the time.

My conclusion is that 2NT is not a good bid -- because it unilaterally directs us towards a strain that on average tends to play 1.6 tricks worse, shooting for a target that is 1 trick lower. This simulation says nothing about the raise vs. the cue-bid, though -- if partner can use his judgement to discern hands where notrump outperforms hearts, then the cuebid could be right. Unfortunately, I have no idea how to automate that.