[kfay]

You're plaing in a team game vs. some opponents who are demonstrably better than you. Holding your cards in the other room is a guy who's played for the US in several BBs (I think).

Kxxx Qx AKxxx Ax

1D-1H
1S-2C* GF, art.
2D-2H
2N-3H
4C-4H
4N-5D* we have all of them
5N-6C
?

Maybe you don't agree with the auction to this point but partner's basically shown:
♠A
♥AK?xxx(x..)
♣K

So what do you do? You're vul, if it matters.

[billw55]

Well since they are so much better than I am, I figure that if I bid 7♥ and make it, so will they. Plus they will beat us on the other boards, right? So to go for a swing, I think I try 6♥, and hope they bid 7 and it fails.

edit: if I am just trying to play good bridge, I bid 7♥ which looks like a favorite.

[Jlall]

As usual I think the best way to beat a team who is even demonstrably better than you in a short match is just to outplay them short term, or hope that random system differences/luck works in your favor. Keep focusing on making good decisions, and don't take wild gambles in order to try to win.

People get so psyched out playing against good teams that they do crazy stuff in the name of being high variance when in actuality it just sucks and works way less often than their chances of winning are.

For instance on this hand you have bid extremely well and are in a position to bid well and win a good swing from making a good decision. There is no reason to think they have bid this well/had the system in the other room, so focus on making the right decision here.

Anyways, we have 12 tricks (maybe needing 3-2 hearts) so far. Partner has shown up with a very good hand but signed off over 4C, not even using last train. That is the key, he is limited from his 4H bid.

Surely if partner had any queen to go with what he's already shown he would not have bid 4H. He would have keycarded probably, but at the least he would bid 4D.

So let's say he has no more HCP. Not even the heart J because I think he would bid last train with that. To make 7 we need to either score a club ruff if he has a third club, or set up diamonds if he doesnt. 2632 would be the death shape.

We definitely want to be in 7 opposite a third club. needing just hearts to come in and clubs not 6-2. We want to be in 7 if he has a doubleton diamond, needing 3-2 hearts and not 5-1 diamonds.

If he has 2632 we definitely don't want to be in 7, needing a spade/diamond squeeze. But with that shape he probably would have bid 3D over 2N, not 3H (knowing we will preference to 3H with a doubleton). So this is not a possible shape.

The worst shape is going to be if partner has 6H and 4C. Then to get a club ruff we need 4-3 clubs. If he is 1624 we won't have the entries to pull trumps and set up diamonds (since he has stiff ace of spades) on 4-2 diamonds. If he is 2614 we can play for 4-3 diamonds or a squeeze if that fails. Anyways, we don't want to be in 7 opp 6-4, but do opposite every other shape. It's not like 7 is without play or anything if he is 6-4, especially if hes 2614.

Overall I think the clear bridge decision is to bid 7. Just because they are better than you doesn't mean you can't outbid them on this hand. Use good judgement.

[scrote]

Having 4sf and then rebid his hearts twice he will have at least six good hearts. Even if you can't ruff a club in dummy you will still have good play for grand so for sure bid seven whoever the opponents are.

Also, your 2nt is horrible imo. 3 hearts is much more descriptive.

[kenrexford]

If I want to invite, I bid 6♦.

Think back through the auction. I'm not sure I agree with the 4♣ call, as it seems to deny a spade control -- wouldn't 3♠ have been a cue in support here? Regardless, partner signed off at 4♥ and did not cue 4♦, whatever that means.

6♦, therefore, cannot be asking for the diamond King. If partner held AKxxxx in hearts, the spade Ace, and the club King, plus the diamond King, and did not accept the 4♣ cue, he's insane. Frankly, I don't know how he has what he has.

In fact, 6♦ cannot really be asking for the diamond Queen either. He cannot have that.

So, what else could it be asking other than for shortness in diamonds, to help set up the suit? If partner has Ax-AKxxxx-xxx-Kx, he signs off. If partner has Ax-AKxxxx-xx-Kxx, he bids the grand, and you hope for diamonds to split no worse than 4-2.

So, you need hearts 3-2 and diamonds 4-2. The question, then, is whether this is enough to shoot for the grand.

When you made your stab at 5NT, you probably hoped for a 6♦ response with the diamond Queen, so you could win 13 tricks the easier way (six hearts, two spades, a club, three diamonds, and a fourth diamond on length). That might still require the same splits, unless partner has Qxx in diamonds. Slightly better.

[Jlall]

kenrexford, on Oct 14 2009, 03:23 PM, said:

If partner has Ax-AKxxxx-xxx-Kx, he signs off.

I still maintain that bidding 3H rather than 3D with this is awful. Partner has rebid diamonds and bid NT when you have bid hearts again. 3H emphasizes a suit you've already bid twice wiht an inadequate holding and fails to give even tertiary support for a suit partner has bid twice. 3D also gives you more room than 3H.

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Oct 14 2009, 03:26 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Oct 14 2009, 03:23 PM, said:

If partner has Ax-AKxxxx-xxx-Kx, he signs off.

I still maintain that bidding 3H rather than 3D with this is awful. Partner has rebid diamonds and bid NT when you have bid hearts again. 3H emphasizes a suit you've already bid twice wiht an inadequate holding and fails to give even tertiary support for a suit partner has bid twice. 3D also gives you more room than 3H.

Well, true. But with Ax-AKJ1098-xxx-Kx, he signs off.

[Jlall]

kenrexford, on Oct 14 2009, 03:23 PM, said:

If partner has Ax-AKxxxx-xx-Kxx, he bids the grand, and you hope for diamonds to split no worse than 4-2.

Doesnt he just ruff a club? I assume you meant Axx AKxxxx xx Kx. In that case you have some play even on 5-1 diamonds if one hand has 4 spades also, it's remote but it is some extra chance at least.

That is definitely enough to bid 7 as long as they bid 6 at the other table but there is def some chance they miss 6 with only an 8 card fit and 30 points and no singletons. Since they are the best team ever though I doubt that will happen

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Oct 14 2009, 03:29 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Oct 14 2009, 03:23 PM, said:

If partner has Ax-AKxxxx-xx-Kxx, he bids the grand, and you hope for diamonds to split no worse than 4-2.

Doesnt he just ruff a club? I assume you meant Axx AKxxxx xx Kx. In that case you have some play even on 5-1 diamonds if one hand has 4 spades also, it's remote but it is some extra chance at least.

That is definitely enough to bid 7 as long as they bid 6 at the other table but there is def some chance they miss 6 with only an 8 card fit and 30 points and no singletons. Since they are the best team ever though I doubt that will happen

Well, that works, I guess. LOL.

But, 6♦ still gets the message across -- bid 7 with two diamonds.

Sure, with A-AKxxxx-xxx-Kxx, he could win six hearts, two spades, two clubs, a club ruff, and two diamonds. But then he might realize that the stiff spade Ace might be the functional equivalent of a diamond doubleton?

[jjbrr]

kick it in

[jdonn]

I think this is easy. Partner won't be 6-3 in the red suits because he bid 3♥ instead of 3♦. So he has either 7 hearts which is 13 top tricks, or a doubleton diamond in which case the diamonds easily set up in 7♥. Considering all the extra chances such as a black queen, easy to bid 7♥.

[MFA]

My style is much different here, I would have bid 2♥ over 2♣. So from what I'm used to, I can understand, if partner is pessimistic with an empty suit, since he can't really expect as much as Qx after 2♦ followed by 2NT. But again, a question of style.

I would try 7 now.

Jlall, on Oct 14 2009, 10:20 PM, said:

As usual I think the best way to beat a team who is even demonstrably better than you in a short match is just to outplay them short term, or hope that random system differences/luck works in your favor. Keep focusing on making good decisions, and don't take wild gambles in order to try to win.

People get so psyched out playing against good teams that they do crazy stuff in the name of being high variance when in actuality it just sucks and works way less often than their chances of winning are.

+1

[Phil]

Jlall, on Oct 14 2009, 03:20 PM, said:

The worst shape is going to be if partner has 6H and 4C. Then to get a club ruff we need 4-3 clubs. If he is 1624 we won't have the entries to pull trumps and set up diamonds (since he has stiff ace of spades) on 4-2 diamonds. If he is 2614 we can play for 4-3 diamonds or a squeeze if that fails. Anyways, we don't want to be in 7 opp 6-4, but do opposite every other shape. It's not like 7 is without play or anything if he is 6-4, especially if hes 2614.

Well this depends on partner's trump spots, so just 4-3 clubs is being conservative. We will also survive when our RHO has 2 clubs and three hearts, regardless of partner's trump quality (although a trump lead into pard's spotless AKxxxx could present a problem.

Why didn't we bid 3♥ by the way? Do people think 2♥ only shows 5 (I don't)?

(Agree that we have a 7♥ call at this point).

[Jlall]

Phil, on Oct 14 2009, 05:02 PM, said:

Well this depends on partner's trump spots, so just 4-3 clubs is being conservative. We will also survive when our RHO has 2 clubs and three hearts, regardless of partner's trump quality (although a trump lead into pard's spotless AKxxxx could present a problem.

Why didn't we bid 3♥ by the way? Do people think 2♥ only shows 5 (I don't)?

(Agree that we have a 7♥ call at this point).

Yes you're right, I overlooked that and it adds a lot of % for us.

[aguahombre]

jdonn, on Oct 14 2009, 04:10 PM, said:

I think this is easy. Partner won't be 6-3 in the red suits because he bid 3♥ instead of 3♦. So he has either 7 hearts which is 13 top tricks, or a doubleton diamond in which case the diamonds easily set up in 7♥. Considering all the extra chances such as a black queen, easy to bid 7♥.

This is the analysis which is simplest, and I like simple. My guess is Pard has 7 hearts for 13 tricks.

[Fluffy]

partner bid hearts 4 times, expecting only AKxxxx is not very realistic IMO. AKJxxx or a 7th one is more likelly. I'd blast 7., but I'd also bid 6♦ rather than 5NT.