[MickyB]

I suspect I would have opened it at the table, but I marginally prefer a pass.

Preempting 2♦ takes away a few steps in the auction, but in return they get cuebids at various levels and information about the lie of our cards on defence. Most of the times that we "push" them into the wrong contract will just be noise - for every ten times their uncontested auction would have been better, they might have eight times that they reach a better spot after we preempt. Obviously, to steal a Hrothgar phrase, I'm pulling numbers out of my ass, but you get the idea.

The times that preempts work best are when you reach a sensible final contract before the oppo have sorted themselves out on a hand where assets are reasonably evenly split. Say you can make 2D and they can make 2S; LHO may find he has the choice between passing 2D out and bidding 2S which will fetch a raise from partner. If you are preempting on a five-count opposite a passed partner, there is no chance that this scenario will occur.

This is being demonstrated at the highest level by the Italians. Fantunes play intermediate-strength twos, were it is much more likely that there is a part-score battle on (especially in third); Likewise, if I have deciphered their CC correctly, Lauria-Versace play IJOs except at favourable.

[MickyB]

xcurt, on Dec 10 2008, 05:16 AM, said:

Pass. Pass Pass Pass Pass.

You have neither major so preempting is not going to put LHO to any difficult decision since he's almost always going to have both majors and can double, or one major than he can overcall.

[snip]

Note that I would be much more tempted to preempt with, say, 1462 shape.

What would you prefer? That LHO had neither major?

The most problematic hands for him to have are probably 5-3, 5-4 and 6-4 in the majors, particularly if he's not strong enough to double then bid a new suit. Preferring to preempt on 1462 seems bizarre, it just increases the (admittedly still small) chance that they have no game on.

[cherdano]

xcurt, on Dec 9 2008, 11:16 PM, said:

Note that I would be much more tempted to preempt with, say, 1462 shape.

1462 makes it substantially less likely that opponents have game than when you have 1264. Having shortness in both majors is the best time to preempt.

[han]

Are we really going to puke when partner raises? Presumably partner won't raise a 3rd seat preempt on a flat hand with 3-card support, would he? I think if partner raises, this hand will probably play well enough to stay out of really serious trouble.

[gnasher]

cherdano, on Dec 10 2008, 08:16 AM, said:

xcurt, on Dec 9 2008, 11:16 PM, said:

Note that I would be much more tempted to preempt with, say, 1462 shape.

1462 makes it substantially less likely that opponents have game than when you have 1264. Having shortness in both majors is the best time to preempt.

More important, I think, is that 1264 makes it much more likely that they'll end up in the wrong major.

[brianshark]

Agree with Han, I'll be delighted if partner raises.

[dodr]

Pass, why bother with a crappy minor suited hand. Bidding 2♦ only helps opponents in their major suit game