[FrancesHinden]

These polls don't always work well when you are stuck with our semi-artificial methods earlier in the auction, but there are some interesting inferences available if you really start to think about the auction, what partner has, and how the play might go

♠ AJ983
♥ K6
♦ A6
♣ KQ62

uncontested auction
1♠ 2♥
2♠ 2NT
3♣ 3♦
3♥ 4♥
4NT 5♠
5NT 6♦
?


1♠ 5 card majors, open 1M with all 5332s
2♥ nat, 5+ hearts, game forcing
2♠ multi-way
2NT relay, denies a very strong heart suit, a side 5-card minor or 4 spades
3♣ 5=1=3=4 or 5=2=2=4, not a horrible minimum
3♦ 4th suit forcing (a neutral FG relay if you prefer), denies 3 spades. Usually shows uncertainty about strain.
3♥ usually honour doubleton
4♥ minimum, to play, is almost certain to have six hearts but might just be a very good 5-card suit with no diamond control expecting to play in a 5-2 fit (3NT instead would have shown that she was not confident about the diamond stop and would be pullable)
4NT RKCB
5♠ 2 key cards + the queen of trumps
5NT enquiry, showing interest in grand
6♦ the king of spades, not the king of diamonds, not enough to bid grand herself

[mike777]

FrancesHinden, on Dec 1 2008, 04:55 AM, said:

These polls don't always work well when you are stuck with our semi-artificial methods earlier in the auction, but there are some interesting inferences available if you really start to think about the auction, what partner has, and how the play might go

♠ AJ983
♥ K6
♦ A6
♣ KQ62

uncontested auction
1♠   2♥ 
2♠   2NT
3♣   3♦
3♥  4♥
4NT    5♠
5NT  6♦
?


1♠   5 card majors, open 1M with all 5332s
2♥  nat, 5+ hearts, game forcing
2♠   multi-way
2NT  relay, denies a very strong heart suit, a side 5-card minor or 4 spades
3♣   5=1=3=4 or 5=2=2=4, not a horrible minimum
3♦ 4th suit forcing (a neutral FG relay if you prefer), denies 3 spades. Usually shows uncertainty about strain.
3♥  usually honour doubleton
4♥  minimum, to play, is almost certain to have six hearts but might just be a very good 5-card suit with no diamond control expecting to play in a 5-2 fit (3NT instead would have shown that she was not confident about the diamond stop and would be pullable)
4NT    RKCB
5♠ 2 key cards + the queen of trumps
5NT  enquiry, showing interest in grand
6♦  the king of spades, not the king of diamonds, not enough to bid grand herself

edit

I tried to follow your bidding must I must give up.....I cannot agree with many bids.
I cannot agee with 2s...must bid 3c. assume 10 hcp.

[FrancesHinden]

mike777, on Dec 1 2008, 10:12 AM, said:

edit

I tried to follow your bidding must I must give up.....I cannot agree with many bids.
I cannot agee with 2s...must bid 3c. assume 10 hcp.

OK, if you don't actually want to read the description of the auction just assume you are playing a totally artificial system in which partner has shown:

HCP
-----

The king of spades, AQ of hearts, Ace of clubs
not the king of diamonds
not a great deal HCP elsewhere than that (a minimum game force opposite an opening bid)

by inference, not the queen of spades - partner would have bid a grand by now with that card in addition

Shape
-------
6 hearts
not three spades
not four clubs
not 5 diamonds

[mike777]

FrancesHinden, on Dec 1 2008, 05:30 AM, said:

mike777, on Dec 1 2008, 10:12 AM, said:

edit

I tried to follow your bidding must I must give up.....I cannot agree with many bids.
I cannot agee with 2s...must bid 3c. assume 10 hcp.

OK, if you don't actually want to read the description of the auction just assume you are playing a totally artificial system in which partner has shown:

HCP
-----

The king of spades, AQ of hearts, Ace of clubs
not the king of diamonds
not a great deal HCP elsewhere than that (a minimum game force opposite an opening bid)

by inference, not the queen of spades - partner would have bid a grand by now with that card in addition

Shape
-------
6 hearts
not three spades
not four clubs
not 5 diamonds

ok I got lost at 2s is=multiway..........

more lost at..3c

when did I show 4 great clubs?

[655321]

If you know partner has 6 hearts you might want to try 7♥, with 12 top tricks (if hearts break 3-2, or partner has the Jack), and a 13th trick, either from a long spade that can be ruffed out unless someone has Qxxxx, or other chances depending on partner's exact hand.

But reading the explanation, it seems that partner may have only 5 hearts e.g. Kx AQJTx xxx Axx.

I think I will bid the cowardly 6♥. How often partner will turn up with just a 5 card heart suit makes a difference, though.

[hotShot]

After the bidding I'm not sure if I get rid of my ♦ loser.
So I stick with 6♥.

[Gerben42]

6NT, if partner is not bidding grand, that probably means that the ♥J is missing. 6NT rates to be as good as ♥. It may even be that 6♥ is down and 6NT is making if partner has ♠Q but ♥ don't break!

[han]

6H, which I think will very often be better than 6NT.

Would 3H over 3C be natural? Can partner still have AQJxxx, it seems to me she can't.

[mikeh]

Partner showed a minimum and then showed up with the spade K (a huge card, known by partner to be huge), the trump AQ and the club Ace. I cannot imagine all this and a trump suit of AQJxxx or better.

Therefore, she has either only 5 trump, in which case we need some luck in the side suits to get to 13 winners (even a 3-3 club break opposite Axx only gets us to 12), or she has AQxxxx in hearts, and we need a 3-2 trump break (even if she has the 10, we may not be able to coup Jxxx onside, and are toast with Jxxx offside) and some other reasonable luck... clubs behaving, spade Q coming down, or a squeeze. There seems to be a good chance that her spade K is stiff on the auction, which reduces the chances in the suit.

So while I love to bid grands, this one seems a little too far. OTOH, maybe I am in a glass half-empty mood, given all my conservative answers.. and that is not a good place for me to be.. it is when I play my worst

[mr1303]

Presumably I have already invited a grand with 5NT. Therefore if I bid 6H quickly enough, partner can bid 7 with a suitable hand?

I just can't count 13 tricks on my own here.

[skjaeran]

mr1303, on Dec 1 2008, 05:46 PM, said:

Presumably I have already invited a grand with 5NT. Therefore if I bid 6H quickly enough, partner can bid 7 with a suitable hand?

I just can't count 13 tricks on my own here.

If partner had a hand which he could bid 7♥ with, he'd have done that over 5NT. Anyway, I'm a 7♥ bidder here.

[effervesce]

Given you said partner either has 6 hearts or 5 very good ones, I think 7♥ is the place to be. Good chances in the spade suit to get a 13th trick. Besides, partner may also have the J of clubs. I must say, though, if partner has Kx AQxxxx xxx Axx or so I'm a bit surprised partner didn't cuebid 4♣, given if you held AQJxx Kx Ax xxxx 7 is good.


Hmmm.... actually now that I've thought about it a bit more, 7 is less likely given partner should have cuebid with 6 hearts, K spades and A clubs. I'm more inclined now to put partner with say

K AQxxxx xxxx Axx or K AQJxx xxxx Axx

I guess I change my mind and leave it in 6♥.

[mr1303]

I agree it isn't likely that partner will bid 7, but my point was that it isn't impossible, since I have expressed interest in 7, which is (IMO) all the hand is worth.

[FrancesHinden]

effervesce, on Dec 1 2008, 11:00 PM, said:

Hmmm.... actually now that I've thought about it a bit more, 7 is less likely given partner should have cuebid with 6 hearts, K spades and A clubs. I'm more inclined now to put partner with say

K AQxxxx xxxx Axx

This analysis definitely gets a gold star. Partner can't possibly have AQJ10xx in hearts, she would have bid a grand by now (and would have bid 3H over 3C in any case). She can't really have anything in addition to the cards shown so far and have signed off in 4H. In fact she has

K
AQ10xxx
xxx
Axx

7H is ostensibly on the hearts coming in plus a bit more (spades 4-3, or short queen, or show-up ruffing spade finesse, or 3-3 clubs, or a black suit squeeze, or a double squeeze). If hearts are 4-1 onside you might just still make 7H (left as an exercise for the reader, but e.g. Qx(x) Jxxx Qx Jxxx(x) on your right will do it).

This is probably not quite with the odds given there's a chance they won't be in slam in the other room, so the signers-off may think they've done the right thing.

However...

How is the play in 6H going to go on a diamond lead if hearts don't break, particularly if LHO has 4 hearts? In fact, the play in six is a much more difficult problem than the play in seven - because you have to decide what nasty layouts to worry about - but the short version is that at least some of the time that 7 is going off, so is 6. I haven't calculated the odds exactly, but I think it makes seven just worth being in. This was true at the table - 7H is hopeless, but 6 is going off in practice on a diamond lead.

What happened at the table?

Of the four tables in our match
- Oppo's two pairs played in 3NT making 9 tricks and 6H-3 on a diamond lead (some of the undertricks were unnecessary)
- Our two pairs played in 6H making on a club lead, and 7H-1 on a club lead ruffed by RHO.

My partner was the 7H bidder. When we discussed the auction afterwards, he said he knew it would need hearts 3-2 at least, but it was the last board of the event with nothing left at stake, so he thought a grand would be more fun. The detailed analysis to work out that you actually want to be in 7 came later.

[mikeh]

FrancesHinden, on Dec 2 2008, 09:23 AM, said:

effervesce, on Dec 1 2008, 11:00 PM, said:

Hmmm.... actually now that I've thought about it a bit more, 7 is less likely given partner should have cuebid with 6 hearts, K spades and A clubs. I'm more inclined now to put partner with say

K AQxxxx xxxx Axx

This analysis definitely gets a gold star.

At the risk of sounding like sour grapes, I don't see how an analysis that echoes mine, except for giving partner 14 cards, gets the gold star...especially when I predicted not only the stiff K but also AQ10xxx with a possible need for a trump coup

[FrancesHinden]

mikeh, on Dec 2 2008, 02:57 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Dec 2 2008, 09:23 AM, said:

effervesce, on Dec 1 2008, 11:00 PM, said:

Hmmm.... actually now that I've thought about it a bit more, 7 is less likely given partner should have cuebid with 6 hearts, K spades and A clubs. I'm more inclined now to put partner with say

K AQxxxx xxxx Axx

This analysis definitely gets a gold star.

At the risk of sounding like sour grapes, I don't see how an analysis that echoes mine, except for giving partner 14 cards, gets the gold star...especially when I predicted not only the stiff K but also AQ10xxx with a possible need for a trump coup

His quote was on the same page as my reply. To get to yours I would have had to "review the complete topic".

But I did notice you had deduced exactly the same hand, honest - it was only a gold star, not the gold star

[poohbear]

If partner has only 5 hearts a grand has to be terrible. Partner's pattern has to be 1-5-4-3 by their failure to bid 3S or 4C over 3H. From partner's POV u are unlimited so we need to find best strain and best lvl. Why should partner not bid 3S with Kx AQJxx and the Ace of C? Whats the rush to play 4H? With a 4 card club suit why is partner not supporting at some point? Given that. Partner should have bid the grand with their actual hand over 5nt . How could partner have more and just bid 4H over 3H? The real question is : Should you have even bothered to suggest a grand given everything we know up to the 5S bid. it is not clear to me that you are even worth a slam try let alone a slam force over 4H. Shouldnt partner have done something just a tad more constructive over 3H? Which brings us back to agreements. 4D here should be last train and I think that is the correct bid over 3H