[rogerclee]

IMPs

♠AJ9 ♥AKQT ♦Axxx ♣AQ

Partner opens (!):

1♦ - 1♥
2♣ - 2♠
2NT - 3♦
3NT - 4♦
4♠ - 4NT
5♣ - 5♥
6♦ - ?

Your partner almost always has 5-4 and not 4-5 in the minors for this rebid. Partner has 1 keycard, no ♦Q.

[jdonn]

F it 7NT (I would have done it before the queen ask.) Too many ways it might make.

[rogerclee]

jdonn, on Nov 20 2008, 07:46 PM, said:

F it 7NT (I would have done it before the queen ask.) Too many ways it might make.

Yeah, if you are going to bid a grand, you obviously would have done it before the queen ask. I just thought it was easier to ask it this way than "Plan? What if partner says no Q?" I admit at the table my reaction was to ask for the Q without thinking.

[awm]

I'm not bidding 7♦. It seems likely that 7NT requires one of diamonds 2-2 or a finesse. For example partner could have:

♠Kx ♥Jx ♦KJxxx ♣KJxx

♠KQx ♥x ♦Kxxxx ♣KJxx

♠KQ ♥xx ♦KJxxx ♣Kxxx

The last hand is probably about the worst case, with only eleven top tricks. But we can still combine the chances of diamonds behaving with some squeeze chances. Of course, slam is cold opposite:

♠KQ ♥Jx ♦Kxxxx ♣KJxx

Bidding 7NT is supposed to be right when it's about 75% so I'd give it a shot.

[maggieb]

awm, on Nov 20 2008, 09:50 PM, said:

I'm not bidding 7♦. It seems likely that 7NT requires one of diamonds 2-2 or a finesse. For example partner could have:

♠Kx ♥Jx ♦KJxxx ♣KJxx

♠KQx ♥x ♦Kxxxx ♣KJxx

♠KQ ♥xx ♦KJxxx ♣Kxxx

The last hand is probably about the worst case, with only eleven top tricks. But we can still combine the chances of diamonds behaving with some squeeze chances. Of course, slam is cold opposite:

♠KQ ♥Jx ♦Kxxxx ♣KJxx

Bidding 7NT is supposed to be right when it's about 75% so I'd give it a shot.

Good example hands, but I don't see why you need 75% to bid this grand. This is not the kind of hand where the other table might be in game or anything weird can happen, you are almost certainly taking at least 12 tricks. You actually only need a very slight advantage to bid the grand on a hand like this, around 56%.

7N seems obvious on the actual hand, even before the queen ask. As Adam showed, this grand is probably about 75% to make, with lots of squeeze chances (potentially in all four suits!).

[ArtK78]

7NT. Seems clear. If diamonds come in, we certainly have 13 tricks. If not, there should be several other chances.

Agree with Maggie. The idea that a grand should be 75% (I think it is a little lower, actually) before it is a good idea assumes that there is a chance that the other table or the field might have accidents and not reach the small. There is no such chance on this hand. So, slightly better than 50% is probably about right. The IMP odds vul are 17 to 13 (56.67%). The IMP odds nonvul are 14 to 11 (56%).

This calculation ignores the virtually zero chance that someone has a trick and can double 7NT. And it would not change the odds very much in any event.

[han]

I was partner and I had Kx Jx KJxxx KJ10x. How should we get to 7H?

[ArtK78]

That is not as silly a question as it might seem. I mentioned once before that in the original Romex book there was a CONFI auction which pinpointed the distribution and it was rational to bid a grand on a 4-2 fit. However, the fit was Ax opposite KQJT. It is far easier to locate an ace in partner's doubleton suit than it is to locate a jack.

In anything other than a relay auction it would be beyond the ability of mere mortals to bid 7♥ on these cards. And, given that you really need to know about the ♥J to know that 7♥ is right, it may be too much to ask of anyone. Even if one could see both hands it might not leap out at you that 7♥ was the right contract. Most players are not wired to even consider the possibility of deliberately playing in a 4-2 fit.

[FrancesHinden]

IMO, 2NT then 3NT over 3D should show a double spade stop, which makes partner exactly 3=1=5=4. He has to have KQx ? K?xxx K?xx to have anything resembling an opening bid, so all the jacks become important cards now.

Do you open aceless 11-counts? if so, then it's possible he has no jacks. If he has an aceless 11-count is he obliged to cue over 4D, or could he have bid a regressive 4NT? (why did we bid 4D rather than 4C if we had already agreed diamonds?)

If he has 0 jacks then 7NT and 7D both need 2-2 diamonds (or possibly slightly better if there is a restricted choice position).

If he has 1 jack in diamonds, 7NT and 7D are both roughly 52% (the D10/9 will make a difference)

If he has 1 jack in hearts or in clubs, 7NT is about 50% (diamonds coming or minor suit squeeze) and 7D is worse.

If he has any 2 jacks, 7NT will be with the odds and better than 7D

The 10 of diamonds will make quite a difference to the odds of grand making.

If partner would not both open an aceless 11-count with no jacks and cue over 4S, then 7NT is with the odds. Even if he would, it's probably gonig to be just with the odds.

But it's also true that it's unlikely to be a claim. If I were playing a long match I expected to win, I would not bid grand here because the odds needs to be better than the theoretical 56%.

[FrancesHinden]

han, on Nov 21 2008, 03:35 PM, said:

I was partner and I had Kx Jx KJxxx KJ10x. How should we get to 7H?

Why is 3NT the right bid over 3D?

One answer is that you have a minimum unsuitable opening bid and wanting to put partner off ideas of a diamond slam.

I would say that partner will happily pass 3NT on, say,

xx
AKQxx
Axx
Qxx

and we will be in the wrong spot.

Speaking personally, I would bid 2NT over 2S then 3H over 3D. Or do you think that's a cue for diamonds? Or do you think it should be a better holding than Jx?

Actually, don't tell anyone, but I might have rebid 1NT rather than 2C.

[Not that any of this gets us to 7H, of course]

[jdonn]

han, on Nov 21 2008, 10:35 AM, said:

I was partner and I had Kx Jx KJxxx KJ10x. How should we get to 7H?

I don't know if you're being facetious or not (maybe just a little), but I certainly don't think 4-3 or 3-4 hearts is more likely than the combination of diamonds or spades coming home in 7NT.