[stjk]

A hand from recent sectional team game:

Ax
Qxx
Qxx
xxxxx

Pard open 2C

2C pass 2D(GF) pass
2N pass ?

we play 2H as relay to 2S so 2N should be 22-24, should I bid 4N or just 3N?

Thanks,

[ArcLight]

You have a bad 8. The ace is nice, but the honors are in the short suit, not the 5 card suit, and you have no spots.

If pard has 24 and ends up in slam with 32 HCP he has a reasonable chance. He may have the Club honors!
If he goes on with 23 he will probably be down.
This may annoy pard, that he can't trust your judgment, and he may pass future invites.

On the other hand, if you are sure that pard will only accept slam with 24 HCP, you can make the invite.

If he stretches, he's likely to be down.

[rogerclee]

3NT. This seems very clear to me.

[ChckNorris]

What that guy above me said.

[stjk]

ArcLight, on Jul 8 2008, 01:37 PM, said:

You have a bad 8. The ace is nice, but teh honors are in teh short suit, not the 5 card suit, and you have no spots.
If pard has 24 and ends up in game with 32 HCP he might make, or not.
If he goes on with 23 he will probably be down.

This may annoy pard, that he can't trust your judgement, and he may pass future invites.

I would settle for 3NT.
Slam can make but its less than 50%.

Hi ArcLight,

Thanks for your reply.

I also bid 3NT after some hesitation, but 6N is good (pard has CAJTx).
Should the 5th C be counted as 1 extra point?

If pard open a 15-17 1NT, with 15HCP and a 5 card suit you may not
wnat to bid 3NT, most likely do something like mild slam try (trans to C
then bid 3NT), but this mild slam try seems not available after 2NT, maybe
we should let 4NT to include some hands with mild slam interest?

Thanks,

[awm]

I think that if you're going to invite, you need to focus partner's attention on the clubs. There are many 23-24 hcp hands where slam is poor, but if partner has 4-5♣ then you might have a shot at 6♣.

How you do this (if at all) depends a lot on methods; one possibility might be to bid minor suit stayman and proceed to investigate slam if partner shows four clubs. Another is to bid stayman followed by 4♣ and see if partner cuebids. Again, the manner in which you look for minor suit slam over a 2NT opening (or 2♣...2NT) is very partnership dependent.

If I was asked to choose 3NT or 4NT, I would bid 3NT.

[Al_U_Card]

ChckNorris, on Jul 8 2008, 02:16 PM, said:

What that guy above me said.

OMG, coming from the guy whose club 2 can take your trump ace whenever he wants...sounds like the good word to me....btw you were referring to God when you said the guy above you (since no one else could possibly be above CN)

[rogerclee]

Al_U_Card, on Jul 8 2008, 01:48 PM, said:

btw you were referring to God when you said the guy above you

ty, most people call me Roger though, or cleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...

[ArcLight]

I ran this through Deal Mater Pro.
If pard has a balanced 24 HCP, slam is around 62% (based on 100 simulations).
So if pard will only accept with 24, you can make the invite.
But as I said, its not a nice hand, and if pard will accept with 23, and has a success rate of less than 50% its not so good.

What I found interesting with the simualtor is at first I felt it was an easy pass, but the simualtor implied that with 24 you should go on.

Maybe I should run 250 simulations next time.

[rogerclee]

ArcLight, on Jul 8 2008, 02:08 PM, said:

I ran this through Deal Mater Pro.
If pard has a balanced 24 HCP, slam is around 62% (based on 100 simulations).
So if pard will only accept with 24, you can make the invite.
But as I said, its not a nice hand, and if pard will accept with 23, and has a success rate of less than 50% its not so good.

What I found interesting with the simualtor is at first I felt it was an easy pass, but the simualtor implied that with 24 you should go on.

Maybe I should run 250 simulations next time.

Maybe you should take into account that on slam hands, declarer has a huge double dummy advantage, since he has all the cards and cannot guess anything wrong. So even on most 24-counts slam is not great.

[kenrexford]

ChckNorris, on Jul 8 2008, 02:16 PM, said:

What that guy above me said.

First post ever for ChckNorris, and all that is said is "what Roger said?"

Very sad start.

LOL

(kidding!)

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Jul 8 2008, 04:21 PM, said:

Plus a lot of balanced 24's would not rebid 2N (since they would have enough to force to game opp a yarb).

Yeah, thinking the same thing. 24 is a bit rich with Kokish available.

[ArcLight]

rogerclee, on Jul 8 2008, 04:10 PM, said:

ArcLight, on Jul 8 2008, 02:08 PM, said:

I ran this through Deal Mater Pro.
If pard has a balanced 24 HCP, slam is around 62% (based on 100 simulations).
So if pard will only accept with 24, you can make the invite.
But as I said, its not a nice hand, and if pard will accept with 23, and has a success rate of less than 50% its not so good.

What I found interesting with the simualtor is at first I felt it was an easy pass, but the simualtor implied that with 24 you should go on.

Maybe I should run 250 simulations next time.

Maybe you should take into account that on slam hands, declarer has a huge double dummy advantage, since he has all the cards and cannot guess anything wrong. So even on most 24-counts slam is not great.

Declarer can guese things wrong if he has 32 HCP and needs 12 tricks. He may need to find a Q, or the distribution of a couple of suits.

Is the concern that a Double Dummy analyzer is too favorable to the defense?

In any case, with 32, according to Deal Master pro, a balanced 24 plus this hand has a good shot at slam, so the invite is correct, if South will pass with less than 24.
Even with 23 and the 5 card suit, its not like 6NT is doomed. 5 is fairly safe (87% with 250 simulations). It may be counter intuitive (at least to me) but it seems invite is the correct action (assuming 2NT = balanced 24 HCP)


As for 24 HCP not rebidding 2NT after opeing 2 Clubs, why not? Not everyone uses Kokish. How many non experts use it? Maybe some that are really into systems. How many very good club players use it?

[kenrexford]

ArcLight, on Jul 8 2008, 07:33 PM, said:

As for 24 HCP not rebidding 2NT after opeing 2 Clubs, why not? Not everyone uses Kokish. How many non experts use it? Maybe some that are really into systems. How many very good club players use it?

The stated agreements, though, included a relay to 2♠, meaning Kokish was available.

[mcphee]

I invite, why not? If partner has 3 good C and accepts I have what he needs. I also fit any 5 card red suit he may hold nicely. Do I think this hand will go down in 4NT, no I do not and also think it is worth looking for a bonus.

[kenrexford]

Just curious -- what is Opener's response to a Puppet 3♣ bid?

I think maybe I have analyzed this too quickly. If partner would bid 3♥ after Puppet, maybe this is more interesting. Now, I have a 9-count. Or, if partner bids 3NT, denying a four-card major, I have greater hope of a club fit. Maybe....

[655321]

Agree with the guy above ChckNorris.

Sure, there might be 12 tricks, but pushing for tight slams is an easy way to lose IMPs in my experience.

[stjk]

kenrexford, on Jul 9 2008, 07:44 AM, said:

Just curious -- what is Opener's response to a Puppet 3♣ bid?

I think maybe I have analyzed this too quickly. If partner would bid 3♥ after Puppet, maybe this is more interesting. Now, I have a 9-count. Or, if partner bids 3NT, denying a four-card major, I have greater hope of a club fit. Maybe....

Opener has 4 clubs and a 4 card M and a "good" 23HCP, so will response 3D to
3C to show one or two 4 card M.

Thanks,