[awm]

Here's a play problem from teams:

Scoring: IMP

---

North deals and opponents are silent. The auction is:

1♥ - 1♠
2♦ - 2♥
3♦ - 3NT

West leads the ♠J. What's your plan for nine tricks?

[kenrexford]

Spade Queen, then diamond toward 10. What next depends on what next.

[effervesce]

Q♠, small heart to the 9.

[the hog]

Q of S and a low D off the board

[awm]

If you play a ♦ towards hand, RHO plays the ♦8 and LHO wins the ♦J. Now LHO plays a small club to dummy's ace....

If you play a ♥ towards hand, RHO plays low and LHO wins the ♥T. Again, LHO plays a small club to dummy's ace....

[kenrexford]

Because its is so incredibly sexy, and I cannot stand it, I'm going to assume that RHO's 8 was from Hx. A priori, Ax, Qx, or Jx. So, I'll go with the odds (LOL) and smother.

Diamond King next.

[Apollo81]

I would win ♠Q, lead a diamond to the ♦10, and then upon their club return lead the ♦K. This tends to put LHO on lead a little more often than low diamond, which is what I want.

[nige1]

awm, on Apr 24 2008, 08:52 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

1♥ - 1♠
2♦ - 2♥
3♦ - 3NT

Here's a play problem from teams:
West leads the ♠J. What's your plan for nine tricks?

---

IMO ♠A then ♦ to ♦K

[effervesce]

I'd find it hard to believe RHO would play small on the lead of a heart from QJxx, QJx, Qxx or Qx, thus it looks like hearts are either 3-3 or splitting 4-2 with RHO having Jx. I'll play off the top hearts, if they're 3-3 I'm home - hopefully LHO has QTxx if they're 4-2 though. If indeed they are 4-2 with LHO having 4, play another heart, putting LHO on lead. LHO cannot attack clubs effectively, and if he also has the A diamonds I'll likely make. If RHO has 4, I'll have to hope for something good in clubs, such as LHO having Jxx where the play of the Q blocks the suit, and hope the K of diamonds is onside.

Also, why are people playing on diamonds? It looks like playing on diamonds has a 25% chance of getting 3 diamond tricks if you lead small from dummy.

AJ2 Q8 K
QJ2 A8 x
AQJ2 8 -
AQJ 82 -
AJ Q82 x
QJ A82 K
J AQ82 -
J2 AQ8 -

25% of the time, leading K for smother works, 25% of the time a small x...

[awm]

Some thoughts here.

(1) Why is effervesce cold if hearts break? I see 3♠+4♥+1♣ is eight tricks. Opponents may be under some discard pressure of course.

(2) Winning the spade in hand and playing diamond to king seems dubious. Suppose you are lucky and the king holds. What is the plan from here? You have blockage in the spades so even if you now duck a heart and find the suit 3-3, you have only eight tricks (2♠+4♥+1♦+1♣).

(3) Diamond to ten followed by the diamond king upon winning the club ace was the line I pursued at the table. The queen did not fall under RHO's ace, and he continued a spade through. At this point I was basically toast and felt rather lucky to end one down. Perhaps this is the best line (I'm not really sure) but it certainly did not work on this occasion.

[effervesce]

awm, on Apr 25 2008, 07:45 PM, said:

Some thoughts here.

(1) Why is effervesce cold if hearts break? I see 3♠+4♥+1♣ is eight tricks. Opponents may be under some discard pressure of course.

(2) Winning the spade in hand and playing diamond to king seems dubious. Suppose you are lucky and the king holds. What is the plan from here? You have blockage in the spades so even if you now duck a heart and find the suit 3-3, you have only eight tricks (2♠+4♥+1♦+1♣).

(3) Diamond to ten followed by the diamond king upon winning the club ace was the line I pursued at the table. The queen did not fall under RHO's ace, and he continued a spade through. At this point I was basically toast and felt rather lucky to end one down. Perhaps this is the best line (I'm not really sure) but it certainly did not work on this occasion.

Sorry you're right - you still have to pick the clubs.

[kenrexford]

Sickness apparently has a lot of company, myself included. LOL

[gnasher]

effervesce, on Apr 26 2008, 01:12 AM, said:

I'll play off the top hearts, if they're 3-3 I'm home - hopefully LHO has QTxx if they're 4-2 though. If indeed they are 4-2 with LHO having 4, play another heart, putting LHO on lead.

What do you throw on the third and fourth rounds of hearts?

[gnasher]

effervesce, on Apr 26 2008, 01:12 AM, said:

Also, why are people playing on diamonds? It looks like playing on diamonds has a 25% chance of getting 3 diamond tricks if you lead small from dummy.

The plan when playing a diamond was, I assume:
- If RHO plays a quack and switches to clubs, lead a low diamond from dummy.
- If RHO plays the ace and switches to clubs, lead a low diamond from dummy.
- If the 10 loses to a quack and RHO switches to clubs, lead the king of diamonds

That would succeed on these layouts:

AHx  Hx  (4 3-2 breaks)
Hxx  AH  (2 3-2 breaks)
HH   Axx (1 3-2 break)
Ax   HHx (2 3-2 breaks)
HHxx A

That is, 9 of the 20 3-2 breaks, and 1 of the 10 4-1 breaks, which is about 33%.

That still isn't as good as playing for hearts 3-3, but it is better than 25%.

Edit: The above analysis discounts the risk of RHO winning the first diamond and playing another spade, forcing you to decide whether to cash the other spade now or to abandon it and hope to get there later.

[Winstonm]

kenrexford, on Apr 24 2008, 09:00 PM, said:

Spade Queen, then diamond toward 10. What next depends on what next.

Yep.

[jdonn]

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 04:37 AM, said:

Edit: The above analysis discounts the risk of RHO winning the first diamond and playing another spade, forcing you to decide whether to cash the other spade now or to abandon it and hope to get there later.

I don't see why that possibility should be discounted, it's not at all unlikely.

[gnasher]

jdonn, on Apr 26 2008, 07:24 PM, said:

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 04:37 AM, said:

Edit: The above analysis discounts the risk of RHO winning the first diamond and playing another spade, forcing you to decide whether to cash the other spade now or to abandon it and hope to get there later.

I don't see why that possibility should be discounted, it's not at all unlikely.

I agree. I was simply pointing out the flaw in my analysis before someone else did. I should have said "does not take account of", rather than "discounts".

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2008-April-26, 13:11

[awm]

The reasoning for playing diamonds (my reason at the table anyway) is that if I duck a heart, even if the suit breaks 3-3 I don't have nine tricks yet. Also, it seemed fairly likely that RHO would win the trick on a heart duck and play a spade through, cutting my communication.

The diamond play has the advantage that if things work out, I can count nine tricks (three diamonds, two hearts, one club, three spades). It also seemed less likely that RHO would win the first diamond trick, because he's probably not going to be up to playing an honor from Qx or Jx. And he might help me out with a tough position by playing queen from AQx.