[mikeh]

Scoring: IMP

After N opens 1♣ and with silent opps, you reach 4♥. LHO leads a 4th best spade 5, and wins trick 2 by taking the trump Q with the A to return the spade 2. Trump are 2-2. Plan the play

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[pclayton]

What did RHO play on the 1st two spades? I hate to sound pedantic, but I think it matters.

[mikeh]

pclayton, on Apr 16 2008, 10:42 AM, said:

What did RHO play on the 1st two spades? I hate to sound pedantic, but I think it matters.

rho played small spots up the line.. std methods, opps probably genuinely advanced (middle of the road BBO experts, I'd guess)... it seemed clear to me (and I was correct on this) that spades were 5=4, with length in LHO.

[Apollo81]

LHO seems to have 5 spades from his spade carding and he had the ♥A, so we can't place him with too much else or he would have overcalled. Similarly RHO probably doesn't have 6♦s, so that makes LHO 5233 or 5242. The ♦A tends to be offside since if LHO had two aces and 5 spades he may have overcalled. Similarly RHO may have bid 1♦ with 5 so that makes the ♣K in LHO and 4-4 diamonds both more likely

Looks like I am going to run ♣J and then bang down ♣Q after it is covered, then lead a third club. I lose if LHO had ♣K10x but I am fine if he had either Kx (RHO is endplayed) or Kxx.

[Apollo81]

and I guess I also win if LHO had Jxxxx Ax Qx Kxxx and RHO had Qxxx xx AJxxxx 10 and no one decided to bid, i guess that has a smidge of possibility

[Vilgan]

Apollo81, on Apr 16 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

Looks like I am going to run ♣J and then bang down ♣Q after it is covered, then lead a third club. I lose if LHO had ♣K10x but I am fine if he had either Kx (RHO is endplayed) or Kxx.

Why does this line work against Kx with RHO? I'd probably do the same thing, except a small club towards the king then come back to my hand in hearts if it holds. No real confidence here on this, but I think Kx in RHO is less likely than Kx or Kxx in LHO so going to give it a shot. Having trouble because almost every hand layout with LHO having 5 spades, they should be bidding.

[Apollo81]

Vilgan, on Apr 16 2008, 05:09 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Apr 16 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

Looks like I am going to run ♣J and then bang down ♣Q after it is covered, then lead a third club.  I lose if LHO had ♣K10x but I am fine if he had either Kx (RHO is endplayed) or Kxx.

Why does this line work against Kx with RHO? I'd probably do the same thing, except a small club towards the king then come back to my hand in hearts if it holds. No real confidence here on this, but I think Kx in RHO is less likely than Kx or Kxx in LHO so going to give it a shot. Having trouble because almost every hand layout with LHO having 5 spades, they should be bidding.

Read what you're quoting again, more carefully this time.

[pork rind]

just lead the 8 of clubs and run it if not covered. rho is endplayed

[pclayton]

pork rind, on Apr 16 2008, 03:42 PM, said:

just lead the 8 of clubs and run it if not covered. rho is endplayed

Yes, this will definitely hold it to -1.

[Echognome]

I'm going to try club to the A and then small club back hoping RHO has Kx (legitimately endplayed) or Kxx (and doesn't find the play of the K on the second round).

[Winstonm]

Surely I can do better as I have the advantage of not being Canadian.

I don't know how to tackle clubs until I know the diamond situation. So first I'm going to lead a diamond to the King.

If it turns out I have 2 diamond losers, I will run the club J and double hook for the 10.

If I only have 1 diamond loser, I will play the club Ace and the lead toward the Q.

[kenrexford]

My first observation is that I dislike the start. I'm fairly confident that someone with eight spades might have bid them. So, I'm fairly confident that the spades are cooperating enough to cash both spades before playing a heart. RHO can have the stiff Ace, or even Ax and duck the first for fear of crashing the King. In either event, RHO would have been endplayed earlier to break clubs or diamonds, or even a stray spade mistake. That does not work, but it might have.

Even if LHO has the stiff heart Ace of hearts, this is good. A club helps me, as does a spade. LHO may well opt a diamond, but this is not clear. If he does opt a diamond, the choice of diamond might help, or I might be able to establish a diamond for a possibly necessary club pitch. Plus, he could have switched to a diamond anyway, so forcing that is not all bad. But, again, that does not work (probably), so I end up in the same spot.

At this point, I think I just run the diamond up, as well. If the King wins, I yield a diamond and expect to ruff the third diamond. Now I need to hold clubs to one loser. I'll lead the club 8 toward dummy. If this is covered by anything, I cannot lose two clubs. So, it will be ducked, presumably. If RHO wins with the King, I'm done now. So, for any further analysis, RHO must win the 10. If he exits a club back, I cannot lose another club (unless RHO had four of them and is F-ing with me). So, I get a spade, maybe, and ditch a club, finessing again and relying on the double hook.

If the diamond King had lost, I probably received a diamond back and anither diamond, whether mine is good or bad. If good, I obviously ditch a club. I now need the clubs to come in without loser. The club King must be right, so LHO has it. If LHO does not drop the obvious K10 tight on my leads toward dummy, he must have one pip and at least three cards to make this. With three cards, one of wich is the King, the remaining cards are 2 each, making it 50-50 who has the 10. But, as LHO can have four cards (five also makes it obvious), the odds tilt in favor of the 10 to the left when it matters. So, I lead the Jack (to trap stiff 10's) and then hook the ten the second time, after the Jack is covered.

[Free]

I would've started with another ♠ so opps get a chance to do the wrong thing and make it easy on us...

Now I think you'll have to play a ♣ to the Q after drawing trumps.

[Halo]

Draw trumps and club to the Queen. I have enough entries to allow for the unlikely singleton King on my left.

RHO is a little more likely to have three clubs, so I'll play him for 10xx if the club Queen holds (return to hand and play club Jack).

[Apollo81]

Halo, on Apr 17 2008, 03:42 AM, said:

RHO is a little more likely to have three clubs, so I'll play him for 10xx if the club Queen holds (return to hand and play club Jack).

umm

[y66]

I like playing RHO for Txx or Tx in clubs better than playing RHO for exactly Kx.

LHO can have the CK. He might overcall 1S with Qxxxx Ax xxxx Kx but prolly not with Jxxxx Ax xxx Kxx.

So, I'm taking Noble's line in clubs.

[Fluffy]

I play a diamond to the king to know how to play clubs latter.

[Vilgan]

Apollo81, on Apr 16 2008, 05:05 PM, said:

Vilgan, on Apr 16 2008, 05:09 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Apr 16 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

Looks like I am going to run ♣J and then bang down ♣Q after it is covered, then lead a third club.  I lose if LHO had ♣K10x but I am fine if he had either Kx (RHO is endplayed) or Kxx.

Why does this line work against Kx with RHO? I'd probably do the same thing, except a small club towards the king then come back to my hand in hearts if it holds. No real confidence here on this, but I think Kx in RHO is less likely than Kx or Kxx in LHO so going to give it a shot. Having trouble because almost every hand layout with LHO having 5 spades, they should be bidding.

Read what you're quoting again, more carefully this time.

ya, my bad. Still confused as to the point in laying down the J of clubs when lefty could have (unlikely tho) the stiff K. Its not like you are starved for entries.

[Apollo81]

Vilgan, on Apr 17 2008, 01:58 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Apr 16 2008, 05:05 PM, said:

Vilgan, on Apr 16 2008, 05:09 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Apr 16 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

Looks like I am going to run ♣J and then bang down ♣Q after it is covered, then lead a third club.  I lose if LHO had ♣K10x but I am fine if he had either Kx (RHO is endplayed) or Kxx.

Why does this line work against Kx with RHO? I'd probably do the same thing, except a small club towards the king then come back to my hand in hearts if it holds. No real confidence here on this, but I think Kx in RHO is less likely than Kx or Kxx in LHO so going to give it a shot. Having trouble because almost every hand layout with LHO having 5 spades, they should be bidding.

Read what you're quoting again, more carefully this time.

ya, my bad. Still confused as to the point in laying down the J of clubs when lefty could have (unlikely tho) the stiff K. Its not like you are starved for entries.

But you ARE starved for entries. Remember you're in dummy on trick 3 so you have to get back to your hand in hearts once to lead clubs th first time. If you return a second time, you will have no chance to endplay RHO.

Note what I suggested works if LHO had Kx (RHO wins 10 on 3rd round and is endplayed) or Kxx(x) (0 club losers). Your way works if LHO has stiff K, but when you return to hand the second time you will have to guess whether LHO had Kx or Kxx.

[Edmunte1]

It's seems a tough choice. Some personal tghoughts:
Facts:
-West didn't overcalled, decreasing the probability for West to have ♦A
-East made a passive return after winning the ♥A
-As Phil pointed out maybe East made some preference signal on spades

Tghoughts:
- Considering spades 5-4 and trumps 2-2, it's more probable that West has 4♦ and 2♣ (32.7% ♦4-4 and 33.9 ♣2-3) than 3♦ and 3♣ (23.5 ♦3-5 and 33.9 ♣3-2)
-Echognome line may work, but it's against probabilities and especially against West play, who probably would have returned ♦'s with xxx in clubs
-More, maybe West would have returned ♦ with Kxx in clubs, afraid of ♣ discard or even let us win first trick in trumps in dummy.
So i think normal play is playing diamond finesse, than club to Queen