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Blame Game

Poll: Who's at fault for missing the cold 4S? (34 member(s) have cast votes)

Who's at fault for missing the cold 4S?

  1. South should negative X over 2D (1 votes [2.94%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.94%

  2. North should X 3D for takeout (24 votes [70.59%])

    Percentage of vote: 70.59%

  3. N/S methods -- they should be opening mini-roman or precision 2D (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. I think the table result will be a plus position! (4 votes [11.76%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.76%

  5. Just bad luck (5 votes [14.71%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.71%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 14:50

Scoring: IMP


North is the dealer. The bidding:

1 - 2 - Pass - 3
Pass - 3NT - All Pass
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#2 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 14:59

South is too light to negative double here, but I suppose some might do so anyway. However, North should definitely double 3 for takeout.

Even if North does make a takeout double of 3, there is no guarantee that game will be reached. South will bid 3 (can anyone make a convincing argument that he should bid 4?) and North will be hard pressed to bid one more. East-West may push North-South into 4, however, and may even take the push themselves to 5, which is finally high enough for North-South to get a plus score on defense.

Par is 5x +200 for North-South.

Was the result at the other table 5x down one?
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#3 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 15:20

I don't like a negative with the south hand with only QJ / Q, but its not criminal.

North has a clear cut TOx of 3 IMO. Opposite short hearts he needs very little to make game.
"Phil" on BBO
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#4 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 15:52

Isn't 3NT down two on a normal spade lead? That's just as good as defending 5DX.

I do think a negative double with the south hand is criminal.
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#5 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 17:38

TimG, on Apr 7 2008, 04:52 PM, said:

Isn't 3NT down two on a normal spade lead? That's just as good as defending 5DX.

I do think a negative double with the south hand is criminal.

I agree with you there is no way south can negative double.

You would rather bid 4 even though they have a save, I would think. It doesn't look like either opponent will save.
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#6 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 18:59

jdonn, on Apr 7 2008, 06:38 PM, said:

You would rather bid 4 even though they have a save, I would think. It doesn't look like either opponent will save.

I agree. But, par is +200 and you can achieve that by defending 3NT. So, it doesn't seem to me like a disaster not to bid 4.
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#7 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 19:11

TimG, on Apr 7 2008, 07:59 PM, said:

jdonn, on Apr 7 2008, 06:38 PM, said:

You would rather bid 4 even though they have a save, I would think. It doesn't look like either opponent will save.

I agree. But, par is +200 and you can achieve that by defending 3NT. So, it doesn't seem to me like a disaster not to bid 4.

I would call it a disaster! Are we trying to beat par, or are we trying to beat our opponents who in practice probably won't save over our cold vulnerable game?
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#8 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 19:25

North should double 3 but it's not auto IMO. Would not have considered a neg X with South's cards. Did South lead a spade at least?
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#9 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2008-April-07, 23:58

Its the hand of the year when i really want to play Flannery.
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#10 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 02:39

benlessard, on Apr 8 2008, 06:58 AM, said:

Its the hand of the year when i really want to play Flannery.

No
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 03:11

Will you stop mentioning the F-word? Thank you.

Incidently, this feeds the theory that it's the person short on opps suit that should act (e.g. North shd dbl 3).
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#12 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 05:56

awm, on Apr 7 2008, 03:50 PM, said:

Dealer: North
Vul: Both
Scoring: IMP
AKxx
Jxxxx
 
ATxx
xx
AKx
QTxx
xxxx
Jx
QTx
AKJxxx
Kx
QTxxx
xx
xxx
QJx

1 (2) _P (3)
_P (3N) AP

IMO North should X 3
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#13 User is offline   Gerben42 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 06:18

Quote

IMO North should X 3♦


Then S doubles 3NT, 500 should be an okay score.
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#14 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 09:26

Gerben42, on Apr 8 2008, 08:18 AM, said:

Quote

IMO North should X 3♦


Then S doubles 3NT, 500 should be an okay score.

I think South will bid 4 catering to pard having KJxx KQxxx --- AKxx, he wont double 3NT. Could even be a double game swing.
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#15 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 10:02

Here is the auction from the other table:

2(1) - 3(2) - Pass - 3NT(3)
Pass - Pass - 4(4) - Pass(5)
Pass - Dbl(6) - All Pass

(1) Modified Mini-Roman; showing an 11-15 three suiter which includes hearts.
(2) Natural
(3) A bit of a guess, but who knows how to look for 3NT intelligently here?
(4) A brave bid, but I guess his partner is almost guaranteed short diamonds.
(5) Probably a forcing pass? Is 5 a better bid?
(6) The wrong decision? Would you bid 5?

End result: -990 when the king of clubs was lead (but -790 was unavoidable).

Yes, south did lead a spade against 3NT. We still lost plenty of IMPs on this one.

Obviously the result from the other table (4X+1) is very poor, but it would be nice to at least put opponents to the guess over 4 rather than being forced to find the right lead in order to hold the result to lose thirteen.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#16 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2008-April-08, 14:51

I agree with those who say S cannot bid over 2 and N should double 3.. altho it is not as clear as everyone makes it sound.

N doesn't have a lot of defence, and he's getting a heart lead if partner passes (and, yes, i know that the double is takeout, but partner is looking at the defensive diamonds we might often hold as dealer, and he has short hearts, in all likelihood)

And, more importantly, S won't often have a lot of spades, so the pratical effect, many times, is that we are going to reach a bad 5-2 heart fit, defend a doubled partial on a bad lead, or play 4.

I still think N has to double, but it isn't hideous to pass.

After the double, I do think that S can, not 'should' bid game. What few cards he has are all working bigtime and he has a bonus 5th spade, with his xxx holding opposite a stiff or void.

So I think that 2 aggressive players would reach 4, a conservative N defends 3N and an aggressive N with a conservative S will play 3.

Notice that I am not actually 'blaming' anyone....and, in fact, if N doubled 3 he will lose imps if S bids only 3... so unless we know what S would have done, the only thing we can blame N for was not giving S a chance
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#17 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2008-April-09, 16:56

I think the table result will be a plus position!, unless lead wasn't the best.
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