[nielsfoged]

Scoring: IMP

(1♦)-pass-(3♦)-Dbl;
(pass)-3NT-a.p.

---

EW are national juniors playing 1NT=15-17, 1♦ at least 4 cards, 3♦ weak-jump w/o major.

Agree or not with the bidding and the first 5½ tricks, you have to deal with:
1) small ♦ to J and Q
2) ♥ to J and K
3) small ♦ to LHO's T
4) ♦K from LHO to your A
5) ♣A-small-small-T
When you now play ♣ toward the table, LHO produces the last small one...

[han]

We have 12 points, dummy 14 and it looks like LHO is balanced so should have at least 11 points. That leaves 3 for RHO who has already shown up with the heart king. Therefore the only relevant holdings for RHO are stiff 9, 10 and doubleton 109 and it is best to finesse.

Note that the percentage play for the suit in isolation is to play for the drop no matter what honor RHO plays.

[nielsfoged]

Hannie - Be aware that it was RHO who opened 1♦

/Niels

[han]

Ah. In that case I see no reason at all to play anything but the normal ♣K.

[nielsfoged]

Hannie, on Aug 25 2007, 03:44 PM, said:

"... is balanced so should have at least 11 points."

"Ah. In that case I see no reason at all to play anything but the normal ♣K."

Hi again Hannie

I noticed that you expect the opening opponent to have 11 hcp if balanced, but the core problem is indeed whether RHO is balanced (that is have at least 2 ♣'s) or has the ♣T singleton, and thereby 10 hcps at most.

Until now RHO has simply confirmed his age! - maybe it is time to add some statistics and/or a good guess of the shape of both opp's hands?

/Niels

[ArcLight]

I will assume LHO has 4 clubs and finesse.
Reasoning below: (If I've made a faulty assumption pleas elet me know!)

You need some information on the way the suits split.

You know that RHO has at least 10-11 of the misisng 14 HCP.
I say 10-11 leaving 3-4 for LHO but I'd like to know a bit more about their methods. How many total points (shape + HCP) do they need to bid 3♦?

Since LHO is so weak I think ♦ are 4-5.

Its very unlikely the heart finesse will work, and even if it does, you still need 4 clubs.

Once you lost the heart finesse, and the dimes are cleared, if you lose a club, you are down (3Dimes, 1C, 1H)

First cash the 3 rounds of hearts. Maybe you can get a better count on the hand.
Though in this case it wont help as RHO would respond 1H with 4, and LHO would open 1H with 5, H are 4/3

Assume the club is a stiff
That would mean LHO has 4 clubs, 5 dimes, and say is 2-2 in the majors.
Meaning RHO has 5 hearts and 3 Spades. RHO would have opened 1H.
So LHO is 1=3=5=4 and RHO is 4=4=4=1
If RHO has a stiff club, then LHO has the Club Jack, so HCP are 4-10

Would RHO open with 10 HCP and 4441 shape?
What are their criteria? Losers?
1C, 3D (missing AKQ), 2H, 1 Spade (assuming KQJ) They might

With 3=4=4=2 shape they have teh following losers.
2C, 3D (missing AKQ), 2H, 1 Spade (assuming KQJ) = 8

They would not open

I will assume LHO has 4 clubs and finesse.

[Foxx]

RHO could have a stiff ♣10, 109, J10, or J109.

If RHO has the ♣J, he should always drop it. On the bidding and play, he is virtually marked with it.

If RHO has ♣109 doubleton, that means he opened a balanced 10 at equal vuln. (yuck!)

So I steel my stomach and call for dummy's eight. Yipes!

[FrancesHinden]

Who has the 5-card diamond suit?
Or, if you aren't going to tell us that, what cards were played in what order on the first 3 rounds of diamonds, and what leads and signals are they playing?

[Free]

That's one hell of a declarer play! Better was to just play ♠A and small ♠. This way, you'll know if RHO has 4♠'s or not. If he doesn't, you play for the ♣ drop, otherwise you can think again... Now you just ruined your entry to the hand, but still, if they refuse to play ♦, you can probably reach your hand with ♥Q to finesse ♣.

Why gamble if you could've known?

[skjaeran]

Foxx, on Aug 26 2007, 11:08 AM, said:

If RHO has the ♣J, he should always drop it.

Why on earth should he ever do that? If I knew that RHO had a singleton or a doublton and he played the ten, I would know for certain to finesse (I'm talking about a situation where I've got the 9 of course).

I know most inexperienced players always drop the jack in these situations.

The correct tactic is to randomize (our ability in that regard is unfortunately very restricted) your play in these situations, to make it more of a guess for declarer. Unless he suspects that you'll always "drop the jack", (or have other indications from the hand) he'll go by the normal odds and apply restricted choice.

[skjaeran]

At the table I'd know the divisjon of the diamonds by the play in the suit, so that should be included here. That might help deciding how to play the ♣'s.

[nielsfoged]

The ♦-lead did not give a count, but LHO next 2 ♦'s (T and K) seemed well considered and looked like an effort to ensure that ♦'s would not block. Also RHO 2nd and 3rd ♦ strongly indicated that he started with an odd number.

I suggest you believe the opponents on this particular information: ♦'s seems 4-5 with J9xxx at Openers hand (=RHO), though a tricky LHO may tease you (and partner) by holding KT9xx!

By the way ArcLight: don't take 3 rounds of ♥'s that will spoil you chances of finessing twice in ♣'s!

To Free: I think playing ♠'s first rather than ♥'s has some, but not a lot of merit. Yes, you will know whether ♠ are 1-4 or 2-3/3-2.
However, if ♠'s are 1-4, RHO may have 4-4-4-1 (or perhaps even 4-3-5-1, if you think LHO could have a 4c suit in ♥ afterall).
If ♠'s are 2-3, RHO may have 3-4-5-1 (or perhaps 3-3-5-2 or even 3-4-4-2)
Only if ♠'s are 3-2, RHO seems to be holding at least two ♣'s, typically 2-4-5-2, but is KQ/KTxx/J9xxx/JT a junior-opening hand?
Finally, playing ♠ rather than ♥ in trick 2, quite often will cost you 1 imp (9 tricks in stead of 10) - admittedly not your major worry here, though!

/Niels

[Fluffy]

Looks like play for the drop.

[Foxx]

skaeran, on Aug 26 2007, 09:20 AM, said:

Why on earth should he ever do that?

I don't know, maybe, because it's the card he's known to hold?

RHO opened the bidding. You have shown up with the ♦A, ♦Q and ♣A, and from your play on hearts you probably have the ♥Q as well. LHO has turned up with the ♦K. If I'm RHO, that leaves 11 points for me. If I had the ♣J, I'm getting rid of it on round one because everyone at the table knows I don't have so much as a sniff of an opening bid without it. At the table, I would expected to be rewarded with a second-round finesse into my ♣10.

OK, even if RHO could easily have the ♣J I would still finesse. That would give him a balanced 11, and I don't know about you, and I shade my opening bids as much as anyone with distribution, but opening a balanced hand in first seat without opening values is pretty scary to me. If he had the ♣J, he MIGHT have played it instead of the ♣10; if he had the ♣9, he MIGHT have played it. I'll take my chances with the hook.