[DWM]

Scoring: IMP

---

Bidding went

P - P - 1H - 2C
4H all out

First two tricks

♣A x x x
♣x x K x

Then east plays the 8♦

What line do you choose?

I saw 3 good lines

Finesse the diamond, Heart ace and another
Win diamond with the A cross to dummy, Finesse the Heart
Win the diamond play for the heart drop.

I played a less faverouable 4th line that was a mix of the bad points of the other 3 but thats by the by.

On a side note if you have this hand in a match that you are behind in would you choose a lower percentage line, if so how far behind and when in the game would your tactics change.

[whereagles]

The diamond play is irrelevant because you can disc one on the ♣Q. You just have to guess hearts and I see no reason to deviate from the book play of finessing, even considering LHO's overcall.

[Dwingo]

Play influenced by the overcall.

Play ♦A. Cash ♥A. Play ♣Q discarding a ♦. Basically you need ♥K stiff to succeed.

[ArcLight]

Based on the 2 Clubs overcall, the lead of the ♣ Ace and follow up mark the Clubs as
Ax - KJxxx


Why didnt East continue the suit?
Maybe because he was looking at the trump K and it would give away information if west couldn't ruff high enough.

Further, with KQ♠ its better for west to lead K than to lead an unsupported ace.
The ♠ honors are split, or maybe both with East

Go up with the ♦ ace.
Over to ♠ ace.
Finesse in hearts.
after trumps pulled - play club Q discarding the dime loser.

Then you can cross ruff the rest

[Gerben42]

Quote

did not have a 3 sided coin to flip

Which is an interesting math problem, how thick must a coin with a 1-inch diameter be that it will function like a perfect 3-sided coin (each of the sides has a probability of 1/3)?

If you don't have any, try using a 6-sided die.

[kenberg]

If the diamond finesse loses you are going down since surely you will lose a spade. So if the king of hearts is right and the king of diamonds wrong you make it by going up with the ace, going to the dummy in spades, and running the Jack of trump, later pitching the diamond. If the king of diamonds is right you make it by playing the Q of diamonds now. So you must choose correctly which king is right.

Here is a bit of speculative logic: Suppose that the king of hearts is wrong. Then rho always could have set you by leading another club. You would play the ten, he would ruff with the king, you would later use the Q of clubs to get your diamond pitch, but you would still have to lose a spade. Therefore, the contract could always have been beaten if the king of hearts is wrong, and you must decide if your right hand opponent has overlooked this or is just hoping you get it wrong. Could be either way, but I think that if my rho held nothing in hearts, and held the king of spades as he likely does, he would see another club as attractive.
No guarantee, but Ace of diamonds, over to the spade, run the Jack of hearts is my choice.

[david_c]

As Whereagles says, taking the diamond finesse is clearly wrong, because you need to pick up the trumps for no losers in order to make this contract, and if you can do this then the diamond loser will go away on the ♣Q.

So you should only need a two-sided coin

The normal play in the heart suit is to take the finesse, and really I don't see a good enough reason to consider playing for the drop instead.

[kenberg]

Oops, my error. Right. Since you lose a spade no matter what, you need the heart. Sure, you play for it onside. Same line of play I was imagining, but better reasons.

[mikeh]

kenberg, on Apr 12 2007, 07:46 AM, said:

Here is a bit of speculative logic: Suppose that the king of hearts is wrong. Then rho always could have set you by leading another club. You would play the ten, he would ruff with the king, you would later use the Q of clubs to get your diamond pitch, but you would still have to lose a spade. Therefore, the contract could always have been beaten if the king of hearts is wrong, and you must decide if your right hand opponent has overlooked this or is just hoping you get it wrong.

This logic requires that LHO overcall 2♣ on Ax and that RHO passed 4♥ with KJxxx in ♣s... you got the bidding backwards

So, RHO couldn't play another ♣ because his Kx holding was already longer than the auction suggested: LHO overcalled on AJ9xx...

BTW, to the problem poster, at the table, we'd have additional info re the ♦K, since LHO would have given suit preference (usually) by his ♣ spot on trick 2. But, in any event, I am morally certain that the ♦ hook loses, so I am winning the A.

Now the only relevant factor is the trump suit.

We actually inferentially know quite a bit about the hand. Thus, it is highly probable that LHO holds Kxx or Qxx of ♠s... with both honours, even KQ tight, he might well have led that suit rather than the strange lead of the ♣ A from an otherwise potentially useful holding.

I think that his lead strengthens the likelihood of the stiff trump King, since he will have to be 3=1=4=5 for the auction to make sense: 4=1=3=5 is a double, 2=1=5=5 is an 2N and so on, and the ♣ lead from AJxxx suggests a lead problem.

So I have to decide whether the inference that he is worried about his lead because he has Kxx K KJxx AJxxx is enough to overcome the strong a priori odds in favour of the ♥ hook.

Ordinarily, one would say that the chances of a 3=0 break add to the odds favouring the finesse... its not just that Kx onside is far more likely than x onside... we have to add in Kxx onside. But here, Kxx is almost impossible since LHO would then be 4=0=4=5 and who bids 2♣ on that shape?

This is an at-the-table situation for me, but, here in the forum, I am going against the strict probabilities and am playing for the stiff K offside... based on the lead. But if my LHO were known to be a weak player, I hook the trump since the lead inference is of less weight.

[kenberg]

mikeh, on Apr 12 2007, 12:16 PM, said:

kenberg, on Apr 12 2007, 07:46 AM, said:

Here is a bit of speculative logic: Suppose that the king of hearts is wrong. Then rho always could have set you by leading another club. You would play the ten, he would ruff with the king, you would later use the Q of clubs to get your diamond pitch, but you would still have to lose a spade. Therefore, the contract could always have been beaten if the king of hearts is wrong, and you must decide if your right hand opponent has overlooked this or is just hoping you get it wrong.

This logic requires that LHO overcall 2♣ on Ax and that RHO passed 4♥ with KJxxx in ♣s... you got the bidding backwards

So, RHO couldn't play another ♣ because his Kx holding was already longer than the auction suggested: LHO overcalled on AJ9xx...

BTW, to the problem poster, at the table, we'd have additional info re the ♦K, since LHO would have given suit preference (usually) by his ♣ spot on trick 2. But, in any event, I am morally certain that the ♦ hook loses, so I am winning the A.

Now the only relevant factor is the trump suit.

We actually inferentially know quite a bit about the hand. Thus, it is highly probable that LHO holds Kxx or Qxx of ♠s... with both honours, even KQ tight, he might well have led that suit rather than the strange lead of the ♣ A from an otherwise potentially useful holding.

I think that his lead strengthens the likelihood of the stiff trump King, since he will have to be 3=1=4=5 for the auction to make sense: 4=1=3=5 is a double, 2=1=5=5 is an 2N and so on, and the ♣ lead from AJxxx suggests a lead problem.

So I have to decide whether the inference that he is worried about his lead because he has Kxx K KJxx AJxxx is enough to overcome the strong a priori odds in favour of the ♥ hook.

Ordinarily, one would say that the chances of a 3=0 break add to the odds favouring the finesse... its not just that Kx onside is far more likely than x onside... we have to add in Kxx onside. But here, Kxx is almost impossible since LHO would then be 4=0=4=5 and who bids 2♣ on that shape?

This is an at-the-table situation for me, but, here in the forum, I am going against the strict probabilities and am playing for the stiff K offside... based on the lead. But if my LHO were known to be a weak player, I hook the trump since the lead inference is of less weight.

I'm having a bad day! Maybe I'll crawl into bed.

[jdonn]

Mike's analysis seems very thoughtful. I agree with trying to drop the king offside. In fact I think both spades may be off (else presuming LHO with the singleton heart I need either way, why not double with 3145) which makes the case for dropping the king even stronger.

The original poster also asked essentially if this is a good hand for swinging. For one thing we don't know if they are even in 4♥ for sure. And if they are they may have no auction or a different auction to guide them. And if they do they may still reach a different conclusion about the best play, as our analyses have shown it is far from clear. In short, this is not the hand to even be worrying about swinging, bidding and making 4♥ is a very strong position however you slice it.