[cherdano]

What do you think is standard here?

[hrothgar]

cherdano, on May 11 2006, 04:13 AM, said:

What do you think is standard here?

I'd be a bit leery about backing in with a 15 count...
I'd assume 16-18 as standard.

[whereagles]

About a queen or king lighter than a direct 2NT.

12-16 or thereabouts, meaning: from a good 12 to a bad 16 or something.

[hrothgar]

whereagles, on May 11 2006, 12:16 PM, said:

About a queen or king lighter than a direct 2NT.

12-16 or thereabouts, meaning: from a good 12 to a bad 16 or something.

This strategy seems VERY dangeous. There are a lot of hands where the LHO will open with a weak 2 and RHO will pass with a relatively good hand that doesn't see a good shot at game.

Balancing with 12-16 balanced is going to result in some big penalties against decent opposition. If they understand that you balance this light and adjust their advance structure accordingly you're going to get eaten alive.

[Free]

According to vulnerability, I also like to play them a little weaker. But with 12hcp V vs NV I'll shut up

[david_c]

I think the standard for direct seat is really a little bit stronger than the 15-18 quoted (I'd want a very good 15, at least). So my vote is for "slightly weaker" but for me this is still 15-18.

[foo]

Play the odds.

If the Weak Two is 5-10 HCP and it goes 2B-pa-pa-?? to you and you hold a flat hand with
12 HCP => 17-22 accounted for, 18-23 left, 9-11.5 expected for GOP
13 HCP => 18-23 accounted, 17-22 left, 8.5-11 expected
14 HCP => 19-24, 16-21, 8-10.5
15 HCP => 20-25, 15-20, 7.5-10
16 HCP => 21-26, 14-19, 7-9.5
17 HCP => 22-27, 13-18, 6.5-9

Expected Ranges for Us
12 HCP=> 21-23.5, average 22.25
13 HCP=> 21.5-24, average 22.75
14 HCP=> 22-24.5, average 23.25
15 HCP=> 22.5-25, average 23.75
16 HCP=> 23-25.5, average 24.25
17 HCP=> 23.5-26, average 24.75

2N or 3ofasuit needs ~23 HCP to be odds on; and 2N is an Invite to Game. which requires ~24-25 HCP to be odds on after a Preempt by the Opponents.

Therefore,
Flat hands of 14- HCP should always pass in the balancing seat vs a 5-10 HCP preempt.
Flat hands of 16+ HCP should always bid in the balancing seat vs a 5-10 HCP preempt.
Flat hands of 15 HCP are "betwixt and between" vs a 5-10 HCP preempt, and should be examined very closely in the context of the auction, vulnerability, and Conditions of Contest, before deciding whether to pass or not.

It's all in the reasonably simple math if you do it.

[whereagles]

foo, on May 11 2006, 05:12 PM, said:

It's all in the reasonably simple math if you do it.

But the game isn't only maths.

22 hcp might be enough for 2NT because you know LHO's shape and strenght. Besides, if his hand is weak, his long suit might not run due to lack of entries.

[mike777]

whereagles, on May 11 2006, 01:11 PM, said:

foo, on May 11 2006, 05:12 PM, said:

It's all in the reasonably simple math if you do it.

But the game isn't only maths.

22 hcp might be enough for 2NT because you know LHO's shape and strenght. Besides, if his hand is weak, his long suit might not run due to lack of entries.

Shapes and all that stuff sure sounds like Math to me?

[whereagles]

hrothgar, on May 11 2006, 03:56 PM, said:

1.
This strategy seems VERY dangeous. There are a lot of hands where the LHO will open with a weak 2 and RHO will pass with a relatively good hand that doesn't see a good shot at game.

2.
Balancing with 12-16 balanced is going to result in some big penalties against decent opposition. If they understand that you balance this light and adjust their advance structure accordingly you're going to get eaten alive.

1. Nobody's perfect. Of course, you don't balance 2♥-p-p-2NT on any 12, say,

Qxx
Qxx
KJxx
KJx

but more like

xxx
Axx
AKJTx
xx

2. Except at top level, no one even cares to ask what range 2NT shows, let alone adjust the system to the lowish min of the bid. Of course, you might want to be more careful if the opposition knows what it's doing.

In any case the point is that there are some hands with 12-13 hcp which you might want to bid 2NT, which is why I say 12-16 is a reasonable range, albeit probably an extreme one.

[foo]

Interesting Theory question on Balancing in the situation I posted:

I wonder if it would be worth it to routinely in that situation:
pass w/ flat 13- HCP
X w/ flat 14-15 HCP
bid w/ flat 16+ HCP

You give up the T/O X, but weakish 4441's are defensively oriented anyway.

Expectation is that you are setting Them and you have told pard what your hand is very precisely so that you could for instance use your 2N structure to find playable spots or probe for Game when Responder has the appropriate hand.

Hmmm...

[foo]

whereagles, on May 11 2006, 01:18 PM, said:

1. Nobody's perfect. Of course, you don't balance 2♥-p-p-2NT on any 12, say,

Qxx.Qxx.KJxx.KJx

but more like

xxx.Axx.AKJTx.xx

Neither of those hands is a typical 12 count.

Qxx.Qxx.KJxx.KJx
is garbage that isn't even worth an Opening bid in most systems. There are 9 counts that are better than this 12 count.

xxx.Axx.AKJTx.xx
has trick taking strength more akin to a typical ~15-16 count than a typical 12 count.

Of course you want to pass with the 1st and compete with the 2nd.

[foo]

whereagles, on May 11 2006, 01:11 PM, said:

foo, on May 11 2006, 05:12 PM, said:

It's all in the reasonably simple math if you do it.

But the game isn't only maths.

22 hcp might be enough for 2NT because you know LHO's shape and strenght. Besides, if his hand is weak, his long suit might not run due to lack of entries.

Playing for specific hands is usually not the way to a good score. Playing the odds is.

Flat hands are defensively oriented.

23HCP are usually needed to make 2N or 3ofasuit. If you have 23HCP but do not have any chance of making Game, your odds on best way to get a good score is to Defend, preferably with a penalty X on the table.

Only if the odds are that We have a Game should we be considering ignoring the fact that our hand is defensively oriented and taking a bid; thereby risking our likely plus if we defend in the hopes of a greater plus if we make Game.

As I said, it is about playing the odds. Not specific hands.

[hrothgar]

whereagles, on May 11 2006, 09:18 PM, said:

1. Nobody's perfect. Of course, you don't balance 2♥-p-p-2NT on any 12, say,

Qxx
Qxx
KJxx
KJx

but more like

xxx
Axx
AKJTx
xx

2. Except at top level, no one even cares to ask what range 2NT shows, let alone adjust the system to the lowish min of the bid. Of course, you might want to be more careful if the opposition knows what it's doing.

In any case the point is that there are some hands with 12-13 hcp which you might want to bid 2NT, which is why I say 12-16 is a reasonable range, albeit probably an extreme one.

Everyone recognizes that HCP are an imperfect measure of playing strength and that not all 12 HCP hands are created equal. it is generally assumed that when you give a range like 12-14 HCP you are talking about normal hands and not weird freaks. (K+R says that the 12 HCP point that your provided is actually worth 14.2 HCP Even so, I think that you'll be hard pressed to find decent players who owuld chose to call 2NT)

Given that you are only using 12 HCPs to describe truly exceptional hands that are worth upgrading, I can only assume that you are using the same principle on the high scale. For example, your 16 counts must look like

AJx
KQx
QJx
QJxx

or some such?

For what its worth, I don't its useful to recommend agreements that will only work well against unprepared or weak opposition.

[han]

I play the direct 2NT as roughly 16-18 and the balancing 2NT as roughly 15-18. I will certainly bid 2NT on a fair number of attractive looking 15-counts in direct seat, but I rarely bid 2NT with a 14-count in balancing seat.

[jchiu]

15+ to 18-, or thereabouts. The reason why this is not a common, set-in-stone agreement for many pairs is that they are allowed, and in fact encouraged, to use judgment about balancing. In fact, I have intentionally left this range undefined in all of my partnerships in which the issue has surfaced.

Expected high cards mean nothing compared to trick taking potential. With expected bad breaks and a nearly-isolated long suit at the left, I would rather look at spot cards and trick structure than pure high cards. Even the opponents' tendencies mean more than high card points. Playing against a known aggressive preemptor, I would certainly shade out of this range to double with a doubleton or trebleton. Here, the range might more closely resemble 16-17. On the other hand, playing against a pair who would hesitate to punch 2NT (or 3X) when I am overboard, I would shade downward to ensure that the preempt has not kept us out of a makable 3NT contract. Holding a good 14-count, I might balance 2NT to get to game opposite partner's mini notrump. Occasionally, table feel even matters more than high cards. If RHO hitches honestly before passing, I would be reluctant to include any mediocre hands in the balancing 2NT. I would rather not give them a second chance to find a better fit, or a chance to double.

Therefore, this is a trick question; and my only answer is that if it looks like a balancing 2NT, and it smells like a balancing 2NT, .....

[civill]

I prefer to play T/O with both 2NT and DBl for this range of HCPs,but 2NT is near balance and with openning HCPs;T/O Dbl is suitable shape might with weak HCPs.

[whereagles]

hrothgar, on May 11 2006, 06:47 PM, said:

1.
it is generally assumed that when you give a range like 12-14 HCP you are talking about normal hands and not weird freaks.

2.
For what its worth, I don't its useful to recommend agreements that will only work well against unprepared or weak opposition.

1. Well, I didn't only say "12-16", I did specify "good 12 to bad 16". Statements such as "good" or "bad" always have to be taken with a grain of salt

2. It's not a specific agreement. It's a matter of being more or less careful within the agreements you have. I would overcall 2NT against anyone on that ♦AKJTx hand, but if you take away that ten, I might pass against top class trigger-happy opps but bid against more wimpy opps who would never dare to double me

[Chamaco]

I think standard is (15)16-18.

Indeed, from what I read, most textbooks that deal with balancing with a NT bid at the 2+ level, strongly suggest keeping the same range as in direct seat.

Personally, in the balancing seat, I might balance 2NT on a good 14 count, but would not do it with good 12-13 counts.

[000002]

the opponents would made their 2♠ if our total HCPs has 22 only.
and
2nt with 22HCPs has 40% probability or more to accomplished.

14-17 is a good advice