MPs, E/W Vul. Playing with the GIB robots in an individual event, what is your next call? 3S is described as "5+ C; 4+ D; 3 S; 21- HCP; 18-22 total points; forcing."
It's your call
#1
Posted 2018-November-22, 20:33
MPs, E/W Vul. Playing with the GIB robots in an individual event, what is your next call? 3S is described as "5+ C; 4+ D; 3 S; 21- HCP; 18-22 total points; forcing."
#3
Posted 2018-November-22, 20:59
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#5
Posted 2018-November-22, 21:23
#6
Posted 2018-November-23, 06:47
if its 5♣ showing 3 (It must be 3 given the pointage) I'm definitely bidding the grand slam.
Any other 5 level suit response,I'll settle for six.
- Dr Tarrasch(1862-1934)German Chess Grandmaster
Bridge is a game where you have two opponents...and often three(!)
"Any palooka can take tricks with Aces and Kings; the true expert shows his prowess
by how he handles the two's and three's" - Mollo's Hideous Hog
#7
Posted 2018-November-23, 06:54
PhilG007, on 2018-November-23, 06:47, said:
if its 5♣ showing 3 (It must be 3 given the pointage) I'm definitely bidding the grand slam.
Any other 5 level suit response,I'll settle for six.
Why would you want to be in a grand, or even a small slam, opposite:
Axx
A
Qxxx
AKJxx
London UK
#8
Posted 2018-November-23, 10:29
This interested me, and I did a simulation using Bridge Analyser with the North hand as stated. This showed that if I had to make the final call, I would choose 6S:
Tricks in S 9 10 11 12 13
From 1000 9 81 325 477 107
So, slam makes 58.4% of the time. I don't think there is much wrong with 4D, even playing with a robot. If it co-operates with 4H, then I will bid Blackwood. If it signs off in 4S I will give up. But then I only practice against robots and don't really know how they "think". Roll-on a Google Deep Mind bridge.
#10
Posted 2018-November-23, 17:47
#11
Posted 2018-November-23, 20:38
As you can see, I turned the deal upside down to ask the question. The hand shown as yours was really your robot partner's hand. Your hand was really the South hand shown now. The deal was one of the last deals I encountered on the final day of the recent NABC Robot Individual event.
I don't know if my bids were the best possible, but my choices were not uncommon -- they occurred 9 times out of the 30 times the deal was played. Following the sequence shown in the question, the robot came up with . . . 3NT! I was rather disappointed when I saw my partner's hand following East's lead of the H3. Naturally West won the HA and returned a heart (the 7) to East's HK. By good fortune West had the HJ and East had the CK so after a simple club finesse we made all the remaining tricks for +460, but that was still below average as everyone in a spade game made at least +480, and there were a few pairs who reached 3NT on some other auction and made +520 after getting a different lead.
But really, why choose 3NT knowing of the 8-card spade fit and having no guarantee that partner has anything in hearts? I was baffled.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
#12
Posted 2018-November-24, 05:46
bixby, on 2018-November-23, 20:38, said:
It was asking you to pass with xxx J KQJx AKQJx when 3NT will make nine or ten tricks, and 4S is in jeopardy. Is that not standard Robot Romex?
#13
Posted 2018-November-24, 09:30
#14
Posted 2018-November-24, 09:56
bixby, on 2018-November-23, 20:38, said:
As you can see, I turned the deal upside down to ask the question. The hand shown as yours was really your robot partner's hand. Your hand was really the South hand shown now. The deal was one of the last deals I encountered on the final day of the recent NABC Robot Individual event.
I don't know if my bids were the best possible, but my choices were not uncommon -- they occurred 9 times out of the 30 times the deal was played. Following the sequence shown in the question, the robot came up with . . . 3NT! I was rather disappointed when I saw my partner's hand following East's lead of the H3. Naturally West won the HA and returned a heart (the 7) to East's HK. By good fortune West had the HJ and East had the CK so after a simple club finesse we made all the remaining tricks for +460, but that was still below average as everyone in a spade game made at least +480, and there were a few pairs who reached 3NT on some other auction and made +520 after getting a different lead.
But really, why choose 3NT knowing of the 8-card spade fit and having no guarantee that partner has anything in hearts? I was baffled.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
#15
Posted 2018-November-24, 23:50
#16
Posted 2018-November-25, 16:36
lamford, on 2018-November-23, 10:29, said:
This interested me, and I did a simulation using Bridge Analyser with the North hand as stated. This showed that if I had to make the final call, I would choose 6S:
Tricks in S 9 10 11 12 13
From 1000 9 81 325 477 107
So, slam makes 58.4% of the time. I don't think there is much wrong with 4D, even playing with a robot. If it co-operates with 4H, then I will bid Blackwood. If it signs off in 4S I will give up. But then I only practice against robots and don't really know how they "think". Roll-on a Google Deep Mind bridge.
I do not know what your assumptions were when you did your simulation.
What do we really know at this stage?
Opener has probably 5 clubs and 4 diamonds and maybe 3 spades.
This begs the question what you bid with 5422, good spades, but nothing in hearts?
Also, but depending on agreements, we have already forced to game with 3 small clubs (not a good holding for slam) and we have just one honor in the minors.
Essentially we have 2 key-cards but nothing else.
If that makes 6♠ cold opener must have either a void in hearts or all the missing honors in the remaining suits.
Even without the minor suit jacks and the queen of diamonds this requires opener to have 18 HCP in fitting cards.
Sorry, but your claim that there are plenty of hands where slam is cold is misleading, unless opener has extras.
There will often be some play for 12 tricks and there are certainly many hands where slam will have no play whatsoever.
For example if we have a heart loser and are missing the queen of spades we have a one in three chance to get home.
I remain unconvinced.
After having forced to game I just bid 4♠, whether playing with a robot or a human expert.
If opener requires just 2 key-cards and nothing else he should simply Blackwood.
Rainer Herrmann
#17
Posted 2018-November-26, 08:38
rhm, on 2018-November-25, 16:36, said:
What do we really know at this stage?
Opener has probably 5 clubs and 4 diamonds and maybe 3 spades.
This begs the question what you bid with 5422, good spades, but nothing in hearts?
Also, but depending on agreements, we have already forced to game with 3 small clubs (not a good holding for slam) and we have just one honor in the minors.
Essentially we have 2 key-cards but nothing else.
If that makes 6♠ cold opener must have either a void in hearts or all the missing honors in the remaining suits.
Even without the minor suit jacks and the queen of diamonds this requires opener to have 18 HCP in fitting cards.
Sorry, but your claim that there are plenty of hands where slam is cold is misleading, unless opener has extras.
There will often be some play for 12 tricks and there are certainly many hands where slam will have no play whatsoever.
For example if we have a heart loser and are missing the queen of spades we have a one in three chance to get home.
I remain unconvinced.
After having forced to game I just bid 4♠, whether playing with a robot or a human expert.
If opener requires just 2 key-cards and nothing else he should simply Blackwood.
Sir,pardon me if a hand requires just 2 key cards to make a SLAM it would probably be opened 2C.
Rainer Herrmann
#18
Posted 2018-November-26, 09:26
#19
Posted 2018-November-26, 18:25
As some others have said, ♥ Q is of questionable value opposite a likely stiff or void. So you're likely looking at only a working 8 points opposite the reverse. Slam seems to be a long way off unless partner has a super-maximum reverse.
I abhor how the robot bid the hand. Part of the result is the bots own doing.
I think the proper rebid is 2 ♠ rather than 3 ♣. It establishes that responder has 5 ♠ and while not promising a lot isn't inherently negative either. With a really bad hand, such as ♠ Jxxxx ♥ xxx ♦ Ax ♣ xxx, responder simply starts the potential sign off sequence whatever it is. 2 ♠ takes up little bidding space and allows opener more potential rebids. In reverse auctions, opener is telling. It's a good bidding principle for the weaker hand to try to keep out of the way of the stronger hand telling their story. Over 2 ♠, opener has both 2 NT and 3 ♣ available as additional rebids. 2 NT would seem to indicate 2=2=4=5 or possibly 1=3=4=5 with a ♥ stopper. 3 ♣ is presumably 4=6 in the minors, but could also be made with 4=5 to allow room to explore for 3 NT. Also, a 3 ♠ rebid by opener shows 3=1=4=5, strong 4=1=4=4, or strong 4=1=3=5 hands. Splinters are available for more disjointed hands 4 trump hands such as ♠ AQxx ♥ x ♦ Q10xx ♣ AKxxx.
But the bot chose to rebid 3 ♣ (which should be positive) and opener's rebids are limited. Now, how do you invite 3 NT? With a ♥ stopper, obviously, you'd just bid it. Without a stopper or with only a partial stopper, the other rebids available are only 3 ♥ or 3 ♠. But then what does each of those rebids mean? If both could be steps toward 3 NT or 3 ♥ could be natural, then it may not be clear that 3 ♠ necessarily shows any, let alone 3.
IMO, 3 ♠ ought to show 3 (or at least ♠ Hx). I think 4 ♠ is right by responder.
#20
Posted 2018-November-29, 12:27
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I rank
1. 4♦ = CUE. GIB recognizes this as a cue-bid. Hope to Keep 6♣ in the picture.
2. 4N = RKC. Committal: In spite of the explanation, GIB can't be relied on to have 3 ♠s. e,g, ♠ Q x ♥ A ♦ K x x x ♣ A K Q x x x
3. 4♠ = S/O. Pusillanimous.
4. 3N = NAT. Not completely stupid opposite GIB
Paul Lamford's suggestion is brilliant: try to involve the genius, Demis Hassabis. in creating an AphaZero bridge robot tor BBO.
BBO is a massive experimental environment and the project would generate mutually beneficial publicity.